North Carolina vs. South Carolina: NCAA basketball picks

The two Carolina's cap the first day of action in the Las Vegas Invitational with ESPN2 televising the late tip (10:00 PM ET).  NCAA basketball odds show the Tar Heels laying 20 points to their southern neighbors, with the total yet to be released. 

Loaded with talent and ranked No. 1 in the country, UNC is going to be the favorite in possibly all but two games on the regular season slate.  One of those is next week when the Tar Heels travel to face Kentucky, presently No. 2 in both polls.  The other is the very last game of the campaign, March 3 at No. 6 Duke and North Carolina could even be giving up a point or two in that one. 

So seeing the Heels favored in this one should come as no surprise.  Still, seeing North Carolina as this big of a favorite over an SEC school might be a bit of a shock to some. 

Two factors play into this line, starting with just how good Roy Williams' top-ranked squad is and how far behind Darrin Horn and the Gamecocks are.  That talent gap can best be illustrated in how they performed against two other schools taking part in the Las Vegas Invitational, Tennessee State and Mississippi Valley State. 

The Tar Heels and Gamecocks played both schools in the past week leading into this tourney.  There were no lines for the matchups against MVSU, who UNC beat 101-75 while USC struggled to get past by a 61-57 count. 

North Carolina was a big 25.5 point favorite at home facing Tennessee State, and cashed those college basketball betting slips with a 102-69 rout.  South Carolina was carrying 11.5 point home chalk against TSU, and was upset by the Tigers, 64-63. 

Horn has a very young roster to work with in Columbia this season.  There's only one senior, Malik Cooke, and the only reason he's still part of the SC roster is he sat out a season after transferring in from Nevada a couple of years back.  The 6-6 forward is leading the team with an 11.8 scoring average to this point.  Sophomore Eric Smith is the only other player averaging at least 10 points a contest. 

The Gamecocks have had a terrible time finding the net, shooting a paltry 40.3% from the field.  They're especially poor from beyond the arc (25.3%) and hitting just 62% of their charity tosses. 

It's also a rather small team, and will have no bodies to put on the Tar Heels' incredible frontcourt duo of John Henson (6-11) and Tyler Zeller (7-0). 

Zeller is one of five seniors Williams has at his disposal, with Henson a junior.  That tandem is putting over 32 points on the scoreboard each outing and grabbing more than 18 boards together...and neither is the biggest star on the team. 

That honor goes to soph Harrison Barnes who many feel is the best player at the collegiate level this season.  The 6-8 forward leads the Heels with a 17.0 PPG mark, and the offense is getting more help from shooting guards Dexter Strickland and Reggie Bullock, together adding almost 19 points per game. 

Directing all of this offense is sophomore point guard Kendall Marshall, who has been on the floor more than any other UNC player to date and dishing out nearly 11 assists per match. 

One more factor that will help UNC in this tournament is despite being about 2,300 miles west of Chapel Hill in Sin City, the crowd will be firmly behind the Heels.  They won this event in 2007, and North Carolina blue filled the stands. 

The winner of this game will draw the winner of the Southern Cal, UNLV contest that tips a little earlier Friday evening.  Everything lines up for the hometown Runnin' Rebels to be that winner, and even then, there will be plenty of UNC support among the fans. 

Taking a Chance: With a game Saturday plus two huge games next week (vs. Wisconsin and at Kentucky), it's quite possible that Roy Williams won't keep the pedal to the metal in this matchup.  But with most UNC reserves better than most of the South Carolina starters, covering the 20 remains my pick. North Carolina takes it, 81-60.