Pittsburgh favored by 11 tonight when they
tip off against Notre Dame, in the sixth week and posting a healthy winning
record, John Ryan continues his lock reports.
Overall record currently stands
at 15-9-3 ATS for 63% ATS winners
Kent State wins by 21 points over Miami (Ohio) installed as six point
favorites and the Flash was my pick last time out.
Five Star graded play on No. 16 Notre Dame as they take to the
road to face No. 4 Pittsburgh in Big East action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.
This game will be televised by ESPN. My
proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability
that Notre dame will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and there is a
small probability calling for the shocking upset win. I like adding a one unit
to the money line for this play on Notre Dame.
off to one of the best starts in school history and are coming off two
convincing wins. Panthers are also in first place in the Big East, sporting a
perfect 7-0 record and are one game ahead of Villanova.
The race for
the Big East title is still wide open with this past week’s results. UCONN
upended Villanova and then Villanova scorched Syracuse on Saturday, two
unexpected results that have propelled the Panthers to first place.
to have been a huge and dominating twelve point win at Syracuse installed as
eight points dogs has been significantly diluted by Villanova’s crushing defeat
of Syracuse Saturday. In my opinion, this makes Syracuse vastly over rated and
reduces the impact that Pittsburgh had in defeating UCONN, Georgetown, and
Notre Dame ranks 50th in
offensive scoring at 75.5 points per game and are led by Hansbrough who is scoring
16.4 points per game and Abromaitus scoring 14.9 points per game. They have not
done as well in shooting percentage, ranking 104th, hitting 45.2% of
their shots. This is a factor of simply passing the ball too much and looking
for the ‘perfect’ shot in the half court sets. The Irish rank 17th
in assists, getting 16.9 assists per game and reflects a commitment to team
play. I fully expect their shooting percentage numbers to steadily improve over
the remainder of the season.
Not surprisingly, the Pittsburgh Panthers rank
very high in all team statistical categories. They are 18th in
scoring at 80.0 points per game, 17th in shooting percentage, and
first in both assists at 19.9 assists per game and rebounding, getting 43
boards per game. Panthers are led in scoring by junior guard Gibbs at 15.9
points per game and senior guard Wanamaker at 12.7 points per game. They
dictate the flow of the games and distribute the ball very well, but I strongly
believe that Notre Dame has the depth and defensive
toughness to give Pittsburgh a great test tonight.
The simulator shows that Notre Dame
will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. This is good news as Pittsburgh
is just 1-5 ATS when opponents have shot within this range on the season. Supporting this graded play further is a
remarkable system that has produced a 27-5 ATS record for 84% winners since 2005.
Play against a favorite off a road blowout win by 20 points or
more and in a game involving two top-level teams winning 80% or more of their
games on the season. Pittsburgh is off a
30 point win at DePaul installed as 16 point favorites this past Saturday.
Take Notre Dame on the spread and do not be surprised if the upset occurs and throws the Big
East race into its’ traditional chaotic search for its’ Champion.