Pittsburgh favored by 11 tonight when they tip off against Notre Dame, in the sixth week and posting a healthy winning record, John Ryan continues his lock reports.

Overall record currently stands at 15-9-3 ATS for 63% ATS winners

Kent State wins by 21 points over Miami (Ohio) installed as six point favorites and the Flash was my pick last time out.

Five Star graded play on No. 16 Notre Dame as they take to the road to face No. 4 Pittsburgh in Big East action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.

 This game will be televised by ESPN. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a high probability that Notre dame will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and there is a small probability calling for the shocking upset win. I like adding a one unit to the money line for this play on Notre Dame.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Pittsburgh is off to one of the best starts in school history and are coming off two convincing wins. Panthers are also in first place in the Big East, sporting a perfect 7-0 record and are one game ahead of Villanova.

The race for the Big East title is still wide open with this past week’s results. UCONN upended Villanova and then Villanova scorched Syracuse on Saturday, two unexpected results that have propelled the Panthers to first place.

What appeared to have been a huge and dominating twelve point win at Syracuse installed as eight points dogs has been significantly diluted by Villanova’s crushing defeat of Syracuse Saturday. In my opinion, this makes Syracuse vastly over rated and reduces the impact that Pittsburgh had in defeating UCONN, Georgetown, and Marquette.

Notre Dame

Notre Dame ranks 50th in offensive scoring at 75.5 points per game and are led by Hansbrough who is scoring 16.4 points per game and Abromaitus scoring 14.9 points per game. They have not done as well in shooting percentage, ranking 104th, hitting 45.2% of their shots. This is a factor of simply passing the ball too much and looking for the ‘perfect’ shot in the half court sets. The Irish rank 17th in assists, getting 16.9 assists per game and reflects a commitment to team play. I fully expect their shooting percentage numbers to steadily improve over the remainder of the season.

Not surprisingly, the Pittsburgh Panthers rank very high in all team statistical categories. They are 18th in scoring at 80.0 points per game, 17th in shooting percentage, and first in both assists at 19.9 assists per game and rebounding, getting 43 boards per game. Panthers are led in scoring by junior guard Gibbs at 15.9 points per game and senior guard Wanamaker at 12.7 points per game. They dictate the flow of the games and distribute the ball very well, but I strongly believe that Notre Dame has the depth and defensive toughness to give Pittsburgh a great test tonight.

The simulator shows that Notre Dame will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. This is good news as Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS when opponents have shot within this range on the season.  Supporting this graded play further is a remarkable system that has produced a 27-5 ATS record for 84% winners since 2005.

Play against a favorite off a road blowout win by 20 points or more and in a game involving two top-level teams winning 80% or more of their games on the season.  Pittsburgh is off a 30 point win at DePaul installed as 16 point favorites this past Saturday.

Free Pick: Take Notre Dame on the spread and do not be surprised if the upset occurs and throws the Big East race into its’ traditional chaotic search for its’ Champion.