Ohio State at Kansas: NCAA Basketball Picks

By: | www.sbrforum.com

Phog Allen Fieldhouse is the venue when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Kansas Jayhawks go head to head. Ohio State is a solid 8-1 Over in their last 9 on the road.


One has to wonder how many TV sets initially tuned to the Army-Navy football game on Saturday afternoon will eventually find their way to ESPN for college basketball.  Don't get me wrong; I love the tradition of the Army-Navy game, but after about 30 minutes of watching each one run the option against one another, the allure of a pair of top-ranked programs meeting up on the hardwood will be too much to resist. 

The No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes face a tough road test in Lawrence against the No. 13 Kansas Jayhawks, part of a big Saturday NCAA basketball betting card.  ESPN will have the tip from Allen Fieldhouse around 3:15 PM (ET), and follow this contest with the top-ranked Kentucky at the Indiana Hoosiers. 

Once it became pretty clear that Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger would be available on Saturday, the opening NCAA basketball odds came out with Ohio State laying 2.5 and 138 for the total

 

The big sophomore missed OSU's last game because of back spasms, and while it's wrong to say the Buckeyes didn't miss Sullinger, they certainly didn't need him in a 64-35 win over Texas-Pan American.  The win was the 300th for Thad Matta's career, and probably ranks as won of the ugliest.  Ohio State easily scored its fewest points among eight this campaign, and the offense shot a season-low from the field, failing to net 40% of the attempts. 

Thad MattaSullinger could've easily made up for the off-game offensively, his 19+ scoring average almost exactly the margin between those 63 points and Ohio State's season average (82.5, 14th). The Buckeyes were also playing with a less-than 100% Lenzelle Smith in that game, the sophomore guard also bothered by a sore back. Smith is fifth on the team in minutes, and second in rebounding behind Sullinger. 

Rebounding is something Bill Self's squad in Kansas is doing OK with, but not quite as well as when they had the Morris Brothers in years past.  Not only did Marcus and Markieff score more than 30 points a game between them last season, they also accounted for about 41% of the glass work for the Jayhawks. 

Thomas Robinson has emerged as Kansas' star, and has formed a very good inside duo with 7-footer Jeff Whithey.  How they work together to control Sullinger in this game will certainly be key for the Jayhawks, but they have other matchup problems that are more troubling. 

All teams are going to have matchup problems with Ohio State's William Buford...at least when he shows up with his 'A' game.  Buford was just about worthless in the win over UTPA, part of that being he was trying to play bigger and make up for Sullinger's absence. 

Aaron Craft is also going to create matchup problems for OSU opponents.  Not because he's tall, or fast, or a bull's eye artist from way outside.  Craft is quick, both his first step and his hands, but it's the fact he's relentlessly on the ball that will drive you crazy.  The primary recipients of his harassment this game will be Jayhawks guards Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson. 

Something odd has to happen for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.  Something very, very, very odd.  Kansas has won 10 straight at Phog Allen Fieldhouse since a 69 game win streak on this court was broken last January by the Texas Longhorns.  That works out to 79-1 the last 80 at home.  Ohio State is making its first real road venture of this campaign, and dropped two of the last three on hostile courts to close last season. 

Something also has to give when it comes to betting this game's total.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 to the OVER recently away from home, while the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games at Allen Fieldhouse to have an official total. 

Taking a Chance: The first thing that has to give is the OVER.  Both teams will reach 70, just Kansas will go higher into the 70s than Ohio State.  The Jayhawks plus the points is my NCAA basketball pick, KU wins it 76-74.


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