Find out why John Ryan has decided to play on the total in tonight's Final Four matchup between Ohio State and Kansas. Who is he adding to his NCAA basketball picks, and why does he feel so confident that this pick will cash?

Free NCAA Basketball pick taking the ‘over’ in the Final Four game pitting Kansas against Ohio State set to tip at 8:45 PM ET. This is going to be a break neck style of game where both teams will be using missed shots as opportunities press the action to their mutual advantages. I believe these NCAA basketball odds are extremely low and the simulator shows conclusive evidence that the line is off by 10 or more points. 

Now, to clarify, with the line estimated to be off by 10 or more points by the simulator, you may be wondering why this is not a stronger graded play. The dominant reason is the area of probability under the bell curve of projections has a low statistical occurrence confidence. That means in layman terms, that if this play wins, it will be easily and may eclipse the total by 20 points.

However, there is a lower probability that this could turn into a slugfest type of game with a total around 120 points. I am not hedging my sports picks as I am confident the ‘OVER’ is the right move for this game. This paragraph only explains why the graded play is not a 10* or higher. 

Simulator Projections

Ohio State vs. KansasMy NCAA basketball betting simulator shows a high probability that more than 136 points will be scored in this game. The simulator shows high probabilities that Ohio State will score between 67 and 74 points and that Kansas will score a minimum of 72 points in this game. In past games, Ohio State is perfect 6-0 ‘over’ in road games when they score between 67 and 74 points. Moreover, Ohio State is 8-1 ‘over’ in games where they have allowed 72 or more points. 

Other projections that are equally noteworthy and valid with Ohio State converting 72 to 78% of their free throw attempts, Ohio State is hitting between 31 and 37% of their three point shot attempts, and Kansas hitting between 40 and 46% from the field. In past games, Ohio State is 23-10 ‘OVER’ when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last three seasons;  26-13 ‘OVER’ in road games when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997;  7-1 ‘OVER’ when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game this season;  82-56 ‘OVER’ when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997.

Team Matchups and Rankings

A dominant key in this game will be the advantages I see Kansas having on the defensive end rebounding the basketball. Second chance scoring opportunities are what often leads a team to victory, especially in championship type games like the Final Four. Both teams are strong rebounding teams and that is not surprising since this is the Final Four. However, Kansas has the athletes and skills to do a better job with defensive rebounding than Ohio State. Kansas will look to use missed Ohio State shots to generate fast break scoring opportunities.

Game Situations Supporting The ‘OVER’

Kansas has a very good defense, but Ohio State has shown an ability to still score points against strong defensive teams like Kansas. Ohio State is 8-1 ‘OVER’ in road games versus good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less this season; 11-3 ‘OVER’ in road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game this season; 11-3 ‘OVER’ in road games versus very good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the last two seasons.

I may be in the minority believing that this game has the makings of a ‘helter-skelter’ type, but I do believe the report shows why the matchups do favor a high scoring game. 

Take the ‘over’ for a 5* Titan Play.