Free NCAA Basketball pick for a play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Round three matchup between South Florida and Ohio University set to start at 7:10 PM ET, March 18, 2012. Lets look at the numbers and see where we can find value.
Two teams that are off upset wins face each other with the winner going to the Sweet 16. No. 12 seed South Florida is off an impressive win over No. 5 Temple defeating them 58-44 and were installed as three point dogs. No. 13 seed Ohio University is off an arguably greater win having defeated No. 4 Michigan and were installed as 5 ½ point dogs.
The winner of this game will face the winner of the North Carolina-Creighton matchup. I have a 5* play on North Carolina, so the winner of this matchup will have a most daunting task in upsetting one of the top teams in the nation.
Sportsbooks had opened the Bulls as 4 point favorites, but early NCAA basketball betting action has lowered that to 3.5 at most betting shops. However, the spread does not interest me here, as I feel the best value for our NCAA Basketball picks lie in this matchup's total.
Before we delve into the matchups and team rankings let’s review two supporting systems that reinforce the ‘under’ play for this game. The first one has gone 121-68 ATS for 64% winners since 1997. Play ‘under’ with neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less after four or more consecutive wins and is a solid team winning between 60% to 80% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. Of the 189 games played based on the criteria of this system, 42% of them or 78 games, went ‘under’ the posted total by seven or more points.
Here is a second proven system that has gone 105-59 for 64% winners since 2006. Play ‘under’ with neutral court teams against the posted total after a combined score of 110 points or less and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less. Of the 168 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 80 of them or 49%, went ‘under’ the posted total by seven or more points.
First Half play ‘UNDER’ and Supporting System
I don’t expect either team to come flying out of the gate and both will choose to run a conservative style of game serving to reduce mistakes and turnover and ultimately to shorten the game. So, for those that like the first-half play here is a system you will be sure to enjoy. It has gone 36-14 ATS for 72% winners since 1997. Play ‘under’ with neutral court teams against the total after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games and is a top-level team winning better than 80% of their games and now playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games on the season.
Matchups and Rankings
The matchups favor both head coaches taking on a bit more conservative approach focused on strong defensive rebounding and ball control. Both teams are weak in the rebounding areas with South Florida ranking 191st in the nation averaging 33.8 rebounds per game and Ohio ranking 174th averaging 34.1 rebounds per game,
South Florida’s rebounding stats are a bit skewed due to the very slow style of play. They rank 330th in the nation averaging 48.8 shot attempts per game. They MUST play a slower type of game and control the tempo or risk getting down by 10 or more points. Being so offensively challenged they will not have the fire power to come back from any double digit deficit.
Moreover, South Florida ranks 321st in the nation averaging 26.6 first half points per game. However, due to strong defensive fundamentals and a slow paced style of game, they rank second in the nation allowing an average of 24.5 first half points per game.
Whoever, does win this game will do it in an ‘ugly’ manner and I would not be surprised to see fewer than 100 points scored in this game. First team to 50 wins.
My Pick: Take the ‘under’ for a 10* Titan play.