The NCAA basketball odds makers have the Gonzaga Bulldogs favored
by 12 as they take on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles tonight at 9:00pm in the
McCarthey Athletic Center. Bulldogs are 9-1 SU in their last ten at home.
5* graded play on Oral Roberts as they take on Gonzaga set to
start at 9:00 PM ET.
This is a matchup of two basketball programs that are off to
solid starts. Gonzaga is off to a 5-2 start and have gone 4-3 ATS. However,
Gonzaga has lost their last two games against strong competition. They lost at
Illinois 82-75 and failed to cover ATS as 2 ½ point dogs December 3. In their
last game they hosted Michigan State and lost 74-67 and were installed as four
Oral Roberts is off to a solid 7-3 start and have won seven of
their past eight games. They have lost five straight to the line and this game
marks the third of a four game road trip. Their next game is an even greater
test at Xavier set to start Sunday.
The college betting line
This game opened with NCAA basketball odds setting Gonzaga as an
11 ½ point favorite and the line has moved to a solid 12 -110 price. I do think
the line will edge higher and working an order to get Oral Roberts as a 12 ½
points dog will get filled.
If, however, the line does not move as expected, my suggestion is
to simply get what is offered. When these 5* graded NCAA basketball picks win, it is normally
by several points and the ‘hook’ rarely comes into to play. Between now and
game time, it does not hurt to work the 12 ½ price taking advantage of every
possible opportunity for the play to win ATS.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator show a
high probability that Oral Roberts will lose this game by 12 or fewer points.
Oral Roberts is a fundamentally sound basketball team that plays a much slower
pace of game than Gonzaga. It will not be necessary for Oral Roberts to control
the tempo and pace of the game as they have significant advantages rebounding
the ball. The strong defensive rebounding will limit second chance scoring
opportunities for Gonzaga.
Gonzaga is not a solid rebounding and ball handling team. In
their last two games, Gonzaga managed only 27 rebounds at Illinois and 28
rebounds versus Michigan State. Moreover, they had 16 and 20 turnovers against
these two teams, respectively.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 87-43 for 67% winners since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points and
is an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game and is now
facing a mediocre defensive team allowing between 67-74 points per game and after
a game where they scored fewer than 61 points. This system has been very
consistent hitting 71% ATS winners for a 22-9 ATRS mark spanning the past five
Roberts ranks 111th in the RPI standings and is ranked 221st
in ‘Strength of Schedule’. The Golden Eagles rank 176th scoring 68.0
points per game, 234th getting 34.0 rebounds per game, 181st
averaging 12.9 assists per game, and 134th hitting 44.4% of their
ranks 68th in the RPI standings and 62nd in ‘Strength of
Schedule’. Gonzaga ranks 61st averaging 76.0 points per game, 143rd
getting 36.0 rebounds per game, 148th averaging 13.3 assists, and
133rd hitting 44.5% of their shot attempts.
their up-tempo style of basketball, Gonzaga is struggles to rebound the ball.
To be averaging 76 points per game, a strong defensive team would be averaging
at least 40 boards per game. I strongly believe that Oral Roberts will get the
job done and make this a very close game tonight.
Take the Golden Eagles