St. John's vs. Arizona: NCAA basketball pick

Congratulations if you faded the Arizona Wildcats last week when they opened the 2011-12 college basketball season with three wins.  A favorite to win the Pac-12 this season, Sean Miller's club took it on the chin against the spread in all three victories, each time giving up points and twice laying at least 13. 

Taking on Valparaiso, Duquesne and Ball State doesn't necessarily qualify as a cupcake schedule to tip a season, but Arizona had crowds behind them at home for all three games and needed second-half comebacks to gain outright wins in two of them. 

The crowd will be against the Wildcats on Thursday when they step into Madison Square Garden to face the St. John's Red Storm in the second matchup of a doubleheader in the Coaches vs. Cancer Tournament.  ESPN2 has the broadcast beginning shortly after the completion of the Texas A&M, Mississippi State game that leads into this contest from the same building. 

St. John's is laying two points on the overnight NCAA basketball odds, with the total at 138.5 points. 

Arizona didn't make any new friends last week among those who followed them against the NCAA odds.  The Wildcats did somehow make some friends among the writers who vote in the AP, many of whom must have been mad about their failed Vanderbilt wagers.  Arizona inched up a spot to 15th in the latest update to the AP Poll after the Wildcats jumped to a 3-0 record. 

St. John's also begins this game 3-0 straight up, covering one of the two games that were lined.  Steve Lavin, who missed the team's opener while he recovers from prostate cancer surgery, knows he is facing an uphill climb in the Big East once the conference schedule begins.  The Red Storm are coming off a solid 2010-11 campaign but lost a huge chunk of that team, including leading scorer Dwight Hardy. 

So far, junior college transfer Gods'gift Achiuwa has picked up the slack along with freshman Moe Harkless and soph Nurideen Lindsey.  Achiuwa and Harkless are intimidating forces inside, combining for over 34 points and 14 boards between them, while Lindsey is running the show with a 16.3 PPG mark and nearly five assists. 

Nobody has stepped up to hit from the outside, and neither Harkless nor Lindsey needs to be at the free throw line with the game in doubt. 

It's too bad that Derrick Williams opted to leave Arizona for the NBA this past spring, because it would've been a great matchup to watch between him and Achiuwa.  Williams, the second overall pick by the Timberwolves, might wish he was back in college as well considering the NBA situation. 

As it is, Miller is left replacing his leading scorer for Arizona just as Lavin is with St. John's.  Kyle Fogg is currently at the top of the Wildcats points column with 14.7 per game, and trailed by three more players scoring in double digits. 

Even with Williams gone, this is an experienced Arizona squad with  Fogg and forward Jesse Perry (10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) both seniors and forward Solomon Hill a junior.  Hill is netting over 10 per game, second on the team with eight boards per contest and leading the squad in assists (3.3). 

Turnovers have plagued the Wildcats so far, 16 per outing and a whopping 20 vs. Duquesne, something that has led to at least to of their spread defeats. 

Taking a Chance: The Wildcats are in hostile territory, but it's an experienced squad that has already experienced close calls and shouldn't be overwhelmed despite being in the Red Storm's backyard.  Arizona +2 and the OVER are my picks.