At home in Maples Pavilion and with a decided advantage in the frontcourt, the Stanford Cardinal get the nod when they open Pac-10 play vs. Arizona State on Friday.
Stanford will play host to the Arizona State Sun Devils on Friday night. This will be the first meeting for these two teams since last February when the Cardinal went on the road as a three-point road favorite and lost straight up 72-68. ASU was seeking revenge for an earlier loss to the Cardinal as a road underdog of eight-points a game in which they were blown out 67-52.
ASU is 11-1 SU on the season and 5-3 ATS. They average scoring 74.0 points per game on the road this season while allowing 64.3 points per game to teams that would normally score 69.5 points per game. Stanford is 10-0 SU on the year and 7-2 ATS. They average scoring 80.9 points per game at home while allowing 63.0 points per game to teams average 69.0 points per game.
Stanford lost their head coach who left them for LSU and they were forced to replace the Lopez twins, a rather tall order for a young team. But they have managed with new head coach Johnny Dawkins who has implemented an up-tempo style and pressure man-to-man defense. The Cardinal players have adjusted to this style of play and their inside duo of Lawrence Hill, who is averaging 13.6 points per game, and Josh Owen, knocking down 11.7 points per game, have led the way.
Stanford’s deep backcourt is led by guard Anthony Goods who is leading the team with 18.4 points per game. The Cardinal backcourt should be successful in containing Sun Devils leading scorer James Harden who averages 23.8 points per game.
The Sun Devils' only big men are forward James Pendergraph who averages 12.8 points per game with 7.1 rebounds and center Eric Boateng who averages 1.6 points and only averages 8.8 minutes per game. ASU’s smaller lineup should find the going tough against a more balanced attack of the Cardinal. Stanford should control the pace and style of play, their front-court advantage will be the difference on the hardwood tonight.
The Sun Devils have struggled on the road going 16-30-1 ATS their last 47. They are 0-6 ATS on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better. Stanford is 13-3 ATS in home games versus teams who make eight or more 3-point shots per game on the season since 1997. Stanford is 12-4 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons.
Database research has uncovered a CBB system that tells us to play against college basketball teams after having won their last five games; these teams are 18-35-1 ATS and if they are installed as a favorite (pk-2½) their record is 0-11 ATS. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support we will recommend a play on the host as Stanford gets the win.
Projected Final Score: Stanford-76 Arizona St-71
Free Pick: Stanford Pick 'Em (-110)
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