Syracuse at Notre Dame NCAA basketball pick

The win over Pitt, as well as the game vs. South Florida, saw Notre Dame play good all-around basketball on both ends of the court and maybe, just maybe the Irish were finally adjusting to life without star Tim Abromaitis. 

It's all gone downhill since then, however, with the Irish dropping a pair and now facing a huge challenge to avoid a third consecutive defeat. The top-ranked Syracuse Orange are coming to South Bend for a Saturday cocktail hour skirmish with Notre Dame, ESPN's telecast starting a bit past 6 PM (ET) inside Joyce Center. 

Syracuse opened as 9-point chalk on the earliest college basketball betting lines available.  Saturday's total started off at 134. 

This wasn't supposed to be a great season for Irish basketball to begin with. Between the 65 writers in the AP Poll and the 31 coaches who vote, just one coach included this team on their preseason rankings. Notre Dame was a 12/1 pick to win the Big East before the season started, putting the Irish tied for seventh on the futures numbers among the 16 teams. 

With Abromaitis, the best that was hoped for was some stunning run into the Big East tourney final. Without Abromaitis, making the quarters of the conference tournament might be a better job turned in by Brey than last season when he was the league's Coach of the Year. 

The most recent losses were not upset defeats in the truest of definitions, but they were embarrassments nonetheless.  Notre Dame was getting two at home against UConn, decent respect against the defending champion Huskies who are once again a strong club.  Getting beat by 14 to end a 29-game home court win streak, and unable to buy a bucket on your own rims, that's another story. 

The 65-58 loss at Rutgers two days later as 3.5 point dogs found the Irish still unable to hit from outside, and a better evening on the free throw line might have at least meant a cover for those playing the NCAA basketball odds. 

Such inconsistency has made Notre Dame anything but an enigma to bettors, at least those who have been fading the Irish and playing the UNDER in their matchups.  Brey's bunch is 3-10 against the spread and O/U.  The UNDER record includes five of the last six for Notre Dame, the only OVER in that span a 67-65 double overtime win at Louisville on Jan. 7, a game that took two extra periods to just skip a half-point above the 131.5 hurdle. 

What is it about Syracuse that you don't know already?  Here's a team that has emerged as the absolute No. 1 outfit in the country.  If there's one flaw detractors can mention it's the fact this will be the Orange's second longest road trip of the season, by about 40 miles compared to a Dec. 17 trip to Raleigh to play North Carolina State.  Cuse has only played four true road games all season, plus two more neutral site contests at the not-so-neutral Madison Square Garden. 

If anything, the team has thrived away from home.  Syracuse scored 69 in both games played in New York City when the whole Bernie Fine mess was first coming to light.  The four real road battles since have seen the Orange tally more than 85 on average, tops in the nation for points in actual hostile environments. 

Syracuse has missed paying off for its backers in two of the last four, but has covered all three Big East road tilts.  The Orange have also won six of the last eight they've played in South Bend, and pulled off victories plus covers in each of the last three in this series. The last two clashes between the Irish and Orange have gone UNDER. 

Taking a Chance: Teams don't go unbeaten anymore, especially in the Big East. The Orange have a very quick turnaround before Monday's game at Cincinnati, so the danger of a look-ahead is there.  While I don't think an outright upset is in order, a Notre Dame cover could very well be with Boeheim thinking to Monday even if his players are not.  The unpredictable Irish are too risky to ask to stay within the spread, so instead let's play the total.  My pick is UNDER 134.