The good times have come crashing down for the Longhorns who head to Oklahoma State on an eight-game ATS losing streak to face a tough-at-home Cowboys crew.
Stillwater will host ESPN Big Monday at 9 p.m. (ET) when the Texas Longhorns (18-3, 4-2 Big 12) travel to meet the Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-5, 4-3 Big 12).
Texas enters the game in the midst of its roughest stretch of the season. Since reaching No. 1 in the AP poll, the Longhorns have dropped three out of four games, the last being a home overtime heartbreaker to the Baylor Bears by a score of 80-77 on Saturday afternoon.
The Cowboys are also coming off a 15-point loss on Saturday to the Missouri Tigers. Various land-based and online sportsbooks have the Longhorns listed as a 1 ½-point road favorite.
The Sagarin ratings indicate that the correct team is favored based on the statistics. Texas is currently ranked eighth with a power rating of 89.30. Oklahoma State is ranked 38th with a power rating of 83.76. With Sagarin’s standard 4.12 home-court advantage, the spread should be 1.42, rounding up to 1 ½.
The Predictor ratings favor the Longhorns by a 90.55-82.53 margin, a four-point advantage for Texas with home-court factored into the equation.
It is important to note two major problems with basing one’s opinion solely on the Sagarin ratings for this game. First of all, the Sagarin ratings take a team’s entire season into account. They do not, however, factor the mental state of a team that has lost three of four games.
Second, the home-court advantage is averaged to be the same for all home teams. Oklahoma State has the same home-court edge as Binghamton. In many other power ratings, such as the Gold Sheet and Statfox, Oklahoma State has the maximum home-court advantage allowed. Home-court is a definite factor in this contest.
Basketball is a game of streaks, particularly on the collegiate level. Oklahoma State is 11-0 this season at Gallagher-Iba Arena. They were 5-0 at home to close out the 2008-09 season, meaning they are currently riding a 16-game home winning streak.
Here are somemore interesting numbers, courtesy of Oklahoma State University:
- In the past 12 seasons, the Cowboys are 20-8 at home vs.ranked opponents.
- In the same span, the Cowboys are 6-1 against ranked Longhorn teams at home.
- Oklahoma State is 5-2 against Texas in Stillwater in the last seven games in the series, including a 68-59 win last year. Texas’ two wins in thatspan are by a total of three points.
Both teams are coming off a loss. Oklahoma State, however, has the confidence that comes with returning to a home court on which it has been unbeatable. James Anderson of the Cowboys, who has 35 consecutive double-digit scoring performances, will lead his team onto the court believing that they will defeat the Longhorns.
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Texas, conversely, has serious confidence issues coming out of its recent skid. No statistic reveals confidence more than free throw percentage. The Longhorns are the worst free-throw shooters in the country at 61.8%. During the four-game slump, they are only sinking 54.1% from the charity stripe.
Many uninformed bettors will jump on a ranked Texas team only giving 1 ½-points to an unranked Oklahoma State team. This is a classic trap that many bettors never learn to avoid.
Expect the Cowboys to play confident basketball on their home floor. Texas, a team that has lost its swagger, will not be able to maintain its composure. I recommend taking Oklahoma State and the points, as I believe the Cowboys will win the game outright.