Virginia at Duke: NCAA Basketball Picks

Helping to make this game intriguing for the fan and bettor alike is the clash of styles and strengths each team brings to the floor.  Virginia has built a solid resume this season as one of the top defensive clubs in the country while Duke's forte is offense.  The Blue Devils have owned this series overall and completely dominated the Cavs at home, adding even more fuel to the fire for Duke haters who love to see Mike Krzyzewski's crew upset, especially when Dick Vitale is courtside behind an ESPN microphone (9 PM ET). 

Overnight NCAA basketball odds listed the Blue Devils -10.5, the sixth consecutive meeting between the schools that Duke has laid double digits assuming that number holds.  Thursday's total started at 129 points, the highest figure yet for a Virginia game this season. 

There's a good reason no Cavs game has even reached the 130 mark, and that's because Tony Bennett's bunch has been incredible on the defensive end.  Look at just about any statistical category for defense, and you're almost certain to find Virginia near the top.  The Cavaliers are very solid on the perimeter and guard the 3-pointer well to hold opponents to just 27% from beyond the arc.  Duke, of course, shoots the three well, eighth in the country with a 41.7% conversion rate, and that sets up one big key to this game for the Cavaliers, keeping the Blue Devils from open looks outside. 

Duke has shot well from anywhere, honestly, also ranking eighth in the nation with a 49.8% overall field goal rate.  But guards Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are each in a bit of a slump.  Dawkins has almost completely disappeared from the offense the past three games scoring just 12 points and cold from the field with just three buckets in 15 tries.  Rivers and Curry are each shooting 9 of 29 in the same span, and all three combine for just 10 of their last 35 shots from 3-point range. 

If Virginia is successful in covering, or even pulling the outright upset, slowing Duke's pace will be the biggest factor.  There's roughly an 18-possession per game difference between these clubs, yet another huge disagreement on the stat sheets for the Cavaliers and Blue Devils.  Assuming Virginia can dictate the pace and stifle Duke's outside shooters, then it figures the game moves inside. 

Bennett and the Cavs looked like they might stop their losing skid inside Cameron Indoor Stadium at a lucky 13 almost exactly one year ago when they visited Durham on Jan. 15, 2011.  Duke was -21 on the spread, and the teams were even the first 10 minutes before the Blue Devils went flat and Virginia caught fire.  The Cavaliers ran out of steam just short of midway through the second half, and eventually dropped the contest, 76-60.  Duke managed to make just 5 of 20 treys, but had an easy time scoring closer to the net with Virginia missing Mike Scott. 

Scott had just been lost for the season with an ankle injury when that game took place.  The senior forward will be in this one, and he's going to have to lead both Virginia's offense and defense for the Cavaliers to make people really sit up and pay attention to them as legitimate ACC threats to Duke and North Carolina.

Getting back to Virginia's defense and how it relates for totals sports betting, we see often see low scores to a unit's credit have nothing to do with the Over/Under.  That's not true in the case of the Cavaliers whose backers have cashed the UNDER on nine of 10 tries.  This defense is no fluke; Virginia has allowed a team to score more than 58 points once.  Once!  Duke goes the exact opposite, with its offense also no fluke.  The Blue Devils are 10-4-1 OVER on the campaign, and their lowest output was in their 85-63 embarrassment in Columbus to the Buckeyes. 

Last year's gathering at Cameron was the only OVER in the last eight matchups. 

Taking a Chance: Look, we know Duke lines are fattened up for John Q and his buddies.  But in this case, 10 and the hook on Duke is especially inviting with the Blue Devils outscoring the Cavaliers by more than 15 the last 11 meetings and so dominant in this series. Instead, my pick will be on the scoreboard where I smell an OVER 129.