Big Monday's biggest contest is a Big East thriller in Morgantown between a pair of Top 10 schools as Bob Huggins' West Virginia Mountaineers host the Villanova Wildcats.
Morgantown will be on fire Monday night when it hosts an ESPN Big Monday battle between Big East top-10 teams. At 7 p.m. (ET), the Villanova Wildcats (20-2, 9-1 Big East) travel south to meet the West Virginia Mountaineers (19-3, 8-2 Big East).
Both teams are coming off Saturday afternoon games. The Wildcats dropped their first Big East game at Georgetown by a score of 103-90. The Mountaineers traveled to Madison Square Garden and defeated the St. John’s Red Storm, 79-60.
West Virginia opened as a 4 ½-point favorite for Monday's game with the total set at 150 at most offshore shops.
The Sagarin ratings indicate that this should be a close contest. West Virginia is ranked fourth with a power rating of 90.89; Villanova is fifth at 90.28. With Sagarin’s 3.99 home-court advantage, the spread is perfect.
The Predictor ratings give the Mountaineers a greater advantage, favoring them by a margin of 90.45-88.16. That would justify a six-point spread.
Both teams are 1-2 against Sagarin top-25 teams. There are series trends that favor the Mountaineers in this matchup.
Villanova is 20-18 lifetime against West Virginia. Winning in Morgantown, however, has been difficult for the Wildcats. Villanova is 2-5 in Morgantown since 1995, the year the Mountaineers joined the Big East. The Wildcats have lost four in a row at WVU Coliseum, including last season’s 93-72 thrashing that was Villanova’s worst loss of the season.
The Wildcats' successful head coach, Jay Wright, only possesses a 3-6 record against the Mountaineers.
In a normal situation, one could potentially see this as a revenge game for the Wildcats based on what happened to them last season. I do not see that as a strong possibility at this point in the schedule for Villanova.
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This will be the Wildcats' second road game in three days. Villanova is a deep team, but they played a very difficult game at Georgetown on Saturday. Both teams ran up and down the court en route to scoring 193 total points. This could result in tired legs for the Wildcats, particularly in the second half.
West Virginia’s physical defense will wear them down as the game progresses, affecting the Wildcats’ game on both ends of the court.
Statistics tell us that this will be a great offensive team against a great defensive team. Villanova scores the most points in the conference (85.2 ppg) while West Virginia gives up the second fewest points (61.5 ppg).
I expect the road environment to hurt the Wildcats' shooting. The crowd will inspire the Mountaineers’ already formidable defense. This combination will be deadly for a road-weary Villanova squad.
I also think the spread is a trap. New national rankings will not come out until Monday, but it is likely that these teams will be very close to each other in the polls. Bettors may see this and consider it a safe bet to take the points with a familiar team that made the Final Four last year. That will be a costly mistake.
I expect the Mountaineers to make a statement on Big Monday. Both teams will come out shooting the ball, but the West Virginia squad will have an advantage because of its defensive prowess. As the game progresses, Villanova will slow down on offense and have difficulty keeping up with the Mountaineers on defense.
West Virginia will slowly pull away and stake a claim as the No. 2 team in the Big East. West Virginia wins the game 75-65, easily covering the spread.