The Musketeers didn't miss a beat under first-year coach Chris Mack, and Xavier will show off just how strong the Atlantic-10 was this year against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Perhaps it is overrating the Big Ten and underrating the Atlantic 10, or a misread by the markets of Minnesota’s performance in the Big Ten tournament last week that buoyed the Gophers into this field. But this is the wrong price range between these teams.
Not only does it mean the usual value aspect, but by reducing this to pick ’em range it also brings in those special “win the game” handicap elements that are so important at tournament time. And it gets us in play.
Xavier made a seamless transition to Chris Mack on the sidelines this season, and much of that could be expected. Mack captained the Musketeers into the NCAA tourney during his playing days, and there has been little change in the system that Sean Miller put in place. So for a program off four straight trips to the Big Dance, including the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 the past two campaigns, there is a tremendous winning legacy.
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It carries over to this court, with Dante Jackson and Jason Love playing 121 tourney minutes in that run two years ago, and then Jackson, Love, Terrell Holloway, Kenny Frease and Brad Redford bringing back 279 minutes of floor experience from last year’s tourney. When you add super talent Jordan Crawford to the mix you find a team without a weakness – they can score inside and out; handle the ball with an unselfish focus (three players scored at least 11.8 per game, and four of the top six in the rotation have more assists than turnovers); defend the length of the court (including allowing just 29.4 percent from 3-point range); and knock down their free throws.
We show them playing one genuinely poor game all season, an ugly loss to Dayton that they avenged in the A10 tourney, and in the only non-conference game over the past two months they went to Florida and dominated the Gators by a dozen on the scoreboard.
Contrast the polish and winning experience with a Minnesota team that had to adapt early to being without Royce White, then later to the loss of Al Nolen, and had to scrap and claw to get here. That is what the Golden Gophers do, playing hard on defense to make up for shortcomings elsewhere, like the lack of a natural point guard.
But while it may look like they made a run last weekend that shows they are peaking at the right time, if Chris Allen had been available for Michigan State it is more than likely that this presence would have been enough to turn around that Friday overtime decision vs. Michigan State. And beating a Purdue team that was without Robbie Hummel, and had an ailing Lewis Jackson, does not mean anywhere near the power ratings upgrade the markets have made.
While the late blowout on Sunday vs. Ohio State can be excused a bit because of it being four games in as many days, there is a residual toll that kind of cycle can take going forward, especially with still toiling 142 minutes in that one.
So what is the bottom line? Xavier brings no weaknesses to the matchup, and plenty of tourney experience with a combined 16 NCAA wins from key cogs in the rotation. Minnesota does not have a player that has won a game in this field, or any other postseason tourney. And even if it is close late, we much prefer Holloway to get the Musketeers into better offensive sets than Devoe Joseph, a natural #2 guard still learning his way at the point.
With Crawford the best go-to scorer at crunch time the tools are there for Xavier to get this win. In only calling for the win to get the money, the markets have made this one easy for us.
Free Pick: Xavier Pick 'Em (-110)