This game based on the simulator projections is lined correctly and there is minimal probability of an upset. So UCONN wins and advances, but making a call on the spread is nearly impossible. 

UCONN Letdown

Kemba Walker

UCONN Huskies enters this game winners of five straight games in five days and won the Big East Tournament. Despite Kemba Walker’s incredible play fatigue will be a factor for him and his teammates. They won the Big East in historic fashion and now have had several days off to take it all in and still focus on the work yet to be done.

Facing an inferior foe in Bucknell may be the worst possible opponent for them to face and head coach Calhoun will have to do a masterful job in preparation and focus to prevent a letdown disaster. 

Bucknell

Guard play is critical in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament and the Bucknell Bisons have a very good point guard in senior Daryll Shazier. A strong point guard makes great plays for his teammates, but first he must walk the fine line between disciplined and aggressive play. Disciplined ball handling is great, but minimizes scoring opportunities.

Too far over in the aggressive play area leads to excessive turnovers. Connecticut will have to respect Shazier in this game and choose to react to his playmaking abilities and not try to force the play. How this all plays out is impossible to project with any degree of certainty. 

Game Situations Favoring Connecticut

UCONN is off a big time win defeating Louisville in the Big East final 69-66. They have won five straight games straight up against the spread. Do not fall into the trap of thinking for one-second that because they have covered in five straight that they are prone to or due to have an ATS loss. Erase those thoughts from your mind as head coach Calhoun is 23-8 ATS making 14.2 units per one unit wager after a close win by three points or less for his entire UCONN career.

UCONN is also a perfect 7-0 ATS making NCAA Basketball bettors 7.0 units per one unit wagered in road games after two straight games with 12 or less assists over the last two seasons; 17-5 ATS making 11.5 units after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last three seasons. 

Game Situations Favoring Bucknell

As good as UCONN and head coach Calhoun were shown above here are some eye popping game situations working against them and for Bucknell. Calhoun is just Calhoun is 5-15 ATS losing 11.5 units per one unit wagered when facing low pressure defensive teams forcing 12  or fewer turnovers per game after 15 or more games in his coaching career at UCONN. 

Here is a supporting system for playing Bucknell using the money line that has produced a 35-31 record for just 53%, but has made 28.4 units since 1997. Play on neutral Court underdogs vs. the money line off two or more consecutive home wins and in a game involving two good teams sporting win percentages between 60% to 80% on the season. What makes this system quite strong is that it has averaged a +200 dog. 

This is a game that in my opinion should be avoided. If you must make a play then placing no more than a 2* amount on Bucknell would be my lean. Go Bisons.