The UNC Tarheels are 3/1 odds favorites, but is this a steal or a trap? Who else is worth your money, and who should be avoided at all cost?
With college basketball future betting, a lot of speculation
is involved. NCAA Basketball odds can be formed for various reasons. Some examples of those
reasons are a college's reputation, past history, the amount of quality players
returning from the previous season, and incoming highly recruited freshman.
Let's take a look at some teams that are overrated and where
the best value lies.
North Carolina - 3/1
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the odds on favorite to win the National
Championship and deservedly so. Even at 3/1, they're a very good bargain as all
5 starters are returning and each returning player on the roster will have one
year of more experience.
The top returning players of senior forward Tyler Zeller,
sophomore Harrison Barnes, junior John Henson ("Mr Double- Double"),
and sophomore guard Kendall Marshall, form a very strong lineup that's familiar
with each other and used to winning. Add in 2 top of the top 20 recruited
freshman in power forward James McAdoo and shooting guard P.J. Hairston and
this team looks unstoppable.
Getting a 300% profit off of your "future
investment" sounds like a bargain to me if you're a Tarheels supporter.
We will see this team in the Final Four, and basketball bettors should expected them to win the National Championship.
Connecticut Huskies- 25/1
I'm going to skip around a bit as the UConn Huskies seem to have
some nice value here. They're the defending National Champions that ran the
table in the Big East Tournament and the Big Dance. Losing guard Kemba Walker
is a major blow and the Huskies shouldn't be considered one of the top
contenders but returning players on this team know the feeling of what it's
like to win. It's a team that can't be counted out and with a top flight head
coach like Jim Calhoun running the program, anything is possible.
The Huskies return a core group of sophomores in Jeremy
Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Roscoe Smith. When you add in big man Alex Oriakhi to
guard the boards and add some offense, you still have a very formidable team.
Connecticut didn't do a sensational job in recruiting but did land the 72nd best
player out of the top 100 in Ryan Boatright. The point guard averaged 31.2
points per game in his senior season. Could the Huskies have another Kemba
Walker in Boatright? Regardless, getting 25/1 on the defending champs with
returning players is a real betting bargain.
One team that isn't overrated is the Kentucky Wildcats. They
were a top contender last year and dominated the recruiting scene with 3 of the
top 10 high school players in America. No other team even came close to the Wildcats.
Returning are Doron Lamb (can shoot the lights out), senior guard Darius
Miller, and sophomore forward Terrence Jones. The freshman will play be a major
factor here. Kentucky is regarded a bargain at 11/2 betting odds considering the
personnel. Lookout for this team.
Vanderbilt Commodores- 35/1
I think Vandy will surprise some people after what happened
to them in the big dance last year. Obviously , they're not the favorites but
for people looking to put money on a team with value and that will give them a
run for their money, the Commodores are a good choice.
Vanderbilt returns it's top scorer in John Jenkins (19.5
ppg.) and a lot of good senior players in forward Jeffery Taylor, center Festus
Ezeli, and guard Brad Tinsley. Vandy will have to be the Miami Heat of college
basketball because they lack depth. Regardless, the price is right for a small
risk and I think that they're slightly underestimated.
Summary: In my opinion, you want to have the teams that
should win with a little backup with a team that has won and another team with
players that can put the ball in the hoop and senior leadership as a
Duke Blue Devils - 8/1
As shocking as this may seem, the Duke Blue Devils are overrated at this
price. They've lost key senior leadership in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler and
will have to deal with a top notch team like North Carolina all season in the ACC. Seth
Curry and Andre Dawkins are solid players in the Duke system but I don't think
that either them or the Plumlee brothers have the makings to be a star.
What I am thrilled with and I'm sure that Coach K will
concur, freshman Austin Rivers will be a big time star in college and beyond.
Duke is putting all of their eggs in one basket and banking on Rivers being an
instant success. The Blue Devils did very well for themselves with recruiting the incoming
freshman, but their lack of experience will prevent them from winning a title.
Having them at 8/1 odds is giving them too much credit for picking up Rivers
and just living off of their previous years. A very good team in the future but
it will take at least a year before they're a top contender.
Indiana Hoosiers - 30/1 *
Picking the Hoosiers at 30/1 is the equivalent to throwing
your money into a paper shreader. This is simply awful. This is a Hoosier team
that' was 12-20 last year!!!!! Do College Basketball betting odds makers expect Indiana to just turn it
around in one season? Indiana does pickup homegrown freshman Cody Zeller
(ranked 13th in the nation) and Zeller will be a great player. The Hoosiers
will be a much improved team next season. They lead the nation in freshman that
are signed for 2012. I've got news. This is 2011. I feel like putting a big
asterik by this team to "STAY AWAY-NO PLAY" (and I will, enough said).
Boston College- 75/1
I don't think many people will be on this team but for those
of you that sprinkle your money around, don't sprinkle it on BC. Their top 5
players have either graduated or in Reggie Jackson's case, moved on to the NBA.
BC did get top 100 recruit in power forward Ryan Anderson (ranked 90th). They shouldn't
even be on the board. This NIT club from
last season should be listed at 200/1 or worse. Being listed at 75/1 is a
One of the favorites should win this season and
the price still looks appealing on North Carolina and Kentucky. By all means,
throw a couple of longshots in there because any team can win or lose on any
given day. I would just rather risk taking the defending champions at 25/1 than
a team like Indiana that was a losing team last season. Enjoy the season. Due
to other sports lockouts
, college basketball might be our only form of betting
and enterainment in the fall and winter aside from hockey, so let's enjoy the