San Jose State favored by one point on the NCAA basketball odds board when they take on New Mexico State tonight, with tip off set for 11:00PM ET.

This will be an offensive oriented game between two high powered WAC offenses. Utah State controls the conference with a 14-1 record and are ranked No. 23 in the polls. New Mexico State is second place in conference with an 8-4 record, but stands at just 14-13 overall. So, they will need to make a strong finish to pique the interest of the NIT Tournament selection committee.

San Jose State may be playing for pride at this point of the season and a win over this rival would certainly make their season a bit more rewarding. San Jose State ranks eighth in conference with a 3-9 record, but certainly have the offense and strong team rebounding to be favored slightly in this game. I fully expect San Jose State to win this game easily.

Supporting System

This play grades as a five star lock based on my proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator, which shows a high probability that San Jose State will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 84-41 ATS for 67% winners since 1997.

Play on a road team where the line is +3 to -3 and is a solid three point shooting team hitting between 32 and 36.5% of their three point shots and now facing a solid three point defense allowing 32 to 36.5% of their three point shots and after 15 or more games of the regular season and after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. Many criteria to this system, but certainly one worth tracking and making additional wagers as plays qualify.

The Stats and Rankings

The New Mexico State Aggies rank third in conference and 89th nationally in scoring offense at 71.6 points per game, but average just 65.8 points per game in road affairs. The San Jose State Spartans rank second in conference and 63rd nationally in scoring offense at 73.0 points per game and are averaging 73.9 points per game in home games.

The Spartans are a significantly better second half team than the Aggies and this will be evident in this game tonight. The Spartans rank second in conference and 98th nationally in second half scoring averaging 37.4 points per game and 38.2 points per game in home games. The Aggies rank fifth in conference and 158th nationally in second half scoring averaging 36.4 points per game, but are averaging just 33.4 points per game in road tilts.

Rebounding Edge to San Jose State

San Jose State has a significant edge in total rebounding and this will a dominant reason they win this game tonight. The Spartans rank best in conference and 34th nationally in total rebounding getting 38.0 boards per game. By comparison, the Aggies rank second to last in eighth position in conference and 190th nationally in total rebounding averaging 34.4 boards per game. Strong rebounding minimizes second chance scoring opportunities for any opponent and has a direct affect on the flow and score of the game.

Game Situations

The Spartans have not had many offensive boards in recent games, but the matchups heavily favor them to have 10 to 14 offensive boards tonight. Note that the Spartans are 12-2 ATS after two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. Spartans have also played extremely well against strong competition noting they are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.