The Atlanta and Dallas offenses both have an advantage over the opposing defense, and this total seems deflated because there teams have not converted yardage to points so far. Go Over.
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys are likely to move the ball well in this game, and I expect a lot of points.
Atlanta has averaged 5.6 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, and that unit should have good success against a bad Cowboys' defense that has surrendered 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team.
The Cowboys' advantage over the Falcons' defense is even greater, as Dallas has been 1.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) while Atlanta's defense is 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl).
The Falcons do have an advantage in special teams and projected turnovers and my math model only favors the Cowboys by 4 points in this game, which is right on the spread. Dallas does apply to a very strong 102-37-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator while the Falcons apply to a negative 92-164-9 ATS scheduling situation. I'll lean with Dallas based on the technical analysis.
There is value on playing the over in this game, as neither team is likely to stop the other's offense on a consistent basis. The line of 47 points may be lower than it should be because these teams haven't averaged as many total points per game as their stats suggest they should.
The Falcons games, for instance, averaged 689 total yards, which is 25 yards more than the league average of 664 total yards, yet their combined average score is just 40.0 points, which is 2.4 points below the league average of 42.4 points.
Dallas games, meanwhile, have a combined average total score of 44.0 points and that number should be higher given their very high 779 total combined yards per game. My math model projects 857 total yards in this game and that should lead to more than 47 combined points.
Free Pick: Falcons, Cowboys Over 47½ (-110)
© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.