The Saints still have a shot at the playoffs with a win, but with a sieve for a defense and the Bears still playing hard, look for Chicago to win this one straight up at Soldier Field.
New Orleans needs to win this game to have any hope of reaching the playoffs (they also need Washington and Minnesota to lose), but Chicago is still playing hard and the Saints still don’t have a defense.
New Orleans is a very good offensive team and Chicago is a bit below average defensively, but the Saints have a horrible defense that can’t stop the pass. New Orleans has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Saints allowed Jacksonville’s horrible backup quarterback Quinn Gray throw for well over 300 yards at 9.8 yppp and also allowed Tampa Bay backup Luke McCown to average 7.4 yppp.
Chicago’s Kyle Orton has averaged only 4.3 yppp in his career, but he’s improved a bit since being a rookie starter in 2005 (5.2 yppp as a starter the last two weeks) and my math model projects a solid 6.3 yppp for Orton against the Saints’ horrible defense and that’s without adjusting for the loss of the Saints’ top CB Mike McKenzie, who was put on injured reserve after being hurt last week.
New Orleans is likely to out-gain the Bears in this game, but Chicago has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Bears by one point. Chicago applies to a 65-29 ATS situation and I believe they’ll play hard in their finale in front of their fans. Prediction: Chicago-23, New Orleans-20
Free Pick: Bears +1½ (-105)
© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.