The oddsmakers are giving the Chicago Bears just enough points on Sunday afternoon to cash an underdog ticket against Aaron Rodgers and the visiting Green Bay Packers.
The Packers are a good team, but they've benefited from a ridiculous +18 in turnover margin (+1.5 per game), which is an average that they are not likely to maintain going forward.
It would seem like the Packers would be likely to be even better in the turnover department against Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, who has thrown 20 interceptions so far this season. However, Cutler has thrown just three interceptions in six home games, with the other 17 coming on the road, and my math model predicts a +0.7 turnover margin for the Packers in this game, so the Packers aren't likely to be quite as fortunate as they've been so far this season.
The Packers are a better team than the Bears from the line of scrimmage, but Chicago has excellent special teams and Green Bay's special teams are the worst in the NFL and field position could play a factor. With Cutler being much more careful with the ball at home the Bears also tend to play well here.
Chicago is 4-2 at home with only one loss that wasn't close (a 20-point loss to Arizona). The Bears' only other loss at home was by just four points to a very good Eagles team and Chicago beat Pittsburgh here early in the season when the Steelers were playing well.
My main math model favors Green Bay by one point while my other model favors the Packers by 4 ½ points, so a line of three points is what I would consider fair. The reason for leaning with Chicago is a 143-72-5 ATS home underdog situation that favors the Bears.
However, the Bears are also just 5-13-2 ATS the last three seasons when facing a team with a winning record, including 0-9-2 ATS following a victory. I'll lean with Chicago at +3 ½ or more.
Projected Final Score: Green Bay-21 Chicago-18
Free Pick: Bears +4 (-110)
© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.
