Bears vs. Packers: NFL Picks

Two NFC North foes get to spend their Christmas Day attempting to get the sour tastes out of their mouths. It's the only game on during the 25^th,  so we'll be taking a look at some of the numbers the books are offering.

What started to look like a stellar showdown on Christmas Day has become kind of a let down. The Packers lost their first game of the season to the Chiefs of all teams, and the Bears seemed to have lost their season with the loss of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Even though it won't be as glamorous, there is still great NFL betting value to be found in this game. 

Pack comeback 

Even though the Packers lost last week, it's not like everything is ruined; but head coach Mike McCarthy will make it seem like it was. Even though the Packers will almost certainly have the number one seed and a first round bye, they will go into this week pretending that their season rides on how bad they beat the Bears. 

Green Bay has been the NFL's best offense this season, but failed to put points on the board in the first half of last week's game. Green Bay has never scored less then 24 points in a game this season prior to week 15. They head home for Week 16 and will be motivated as ever to lock up that number one seed. Only a depleted and broken Bears squad stands in their way. I expect Aaron Rodgers to build up a comfortable lead, so McCarthy can bring in the scrubs in the second half. 

Hibernating Bears 

During the Bears' run this season, when they finally were looking like a true playoff team, Jay Cutler was playing some of the best football of his career. We have already seen how important Peyton Manning was to the Colts, and now we know how important Jay Cutler is to the Bears. If Cutler was the one out for the season, I wonder if the Bears would just now be getting their first win. Probably not, considering their defense is still great and Matt Forte is one of the best running backs in the league. However, it does not look like the Bears will win another game this season. 

Chicago has lost four in a row. In their last three, they have averaged only nine points per game and have not only lost these games, but in some cases have given them away. Two weeks ago against Tebow, they had a 10-0 lead late in the fourth quarter, but some how wrapped up that win and handed it right to the Broncos as an early Christmas present. Josh McCown will get his shot at quarterbacking this week, but the outcome will not be any different. 

The Sharp Pick

The Packers were able to beat the Bears in Chicago earlier in the season by ten point, and this was when Chicago was completely healthy. Now that the Bears look like the Cubs; Green Bay will have no problem dismissing them early in the game.

NFL odds favor the Packers by -13, and I haven't liked adding double digit spread to my NFL Picks this much since the Saints played the Colts. If the Packers don't put up forty points and beat the Bears by multiple touchdowns, then they are not even worthy enough to call themselves the defending champs. Lay the points and just spend the cash before Sunday.