Having defeated Andrew Luck and the Colts last week, the Chicago Bears travel to Green Bay to do battle with their long-time rival the Packers. The Packers are coming off an eye-opening loss to the 49ers. Having previously given you our NFL pick on the total, we now play the spread.
Rodgers home redoes
It
wasn’t a happy opening weekend for Green Bay. Considering that they face a short week
without their best receiver, and against their main division rival, things
aren’t looking good for Green Bay. Greg Jennings is doubtful for
tonight’s game, and while some seem to think it won’t matter too much, I do.
Jennings
is the Packers’ most reliable receiver. Jordy Nelson is good, but he does
disappear sometimes. Now the Pack
will have to rely on James Jones, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley. Jones
and Cobb are definitely inconsistent, and Finley had a bad case of the drops in
Week 1.
However,
the Packers still have the MVP, and that bodes well for their chances. Still, Jennings was one of the only guys who could beat the Bears
Cover 2 defense deep. Without him, Rodgers will have to throw more across the
middle to Nelson and Finley. And, that is exactly what the Bears want him to do.
Bears trying to keep them in front
The
whole point of the Tampa 2 defense is to not get beat deep, and to keep everything
in front of you. Jennings crushed the Bears last season. He didn’t play against
the Bears in the final game of the season, but in his one game
against Chicago last season, Jennings had 9 receptions for 119 yards. It was
his highest reception total of the season, and it was his second highest yards
total.
Needless
to say, if a Packers fan or backer claims the absence of Jennings doesn’t
matter, they aren't telling truth. The Bears, on the other hand, are healthy
and probably dying to hit Rodgers. If Chicago can pressure him,
it could be an upset.
The key
for Chicago tonight is to force Rodgers to dump the ball off a lot, and on
offense, to balance the run and pass attacks, to keep the Packers guessing.
Green Bay’s defense gets better when they only have to deal with one facet of
an offensive attack. If the Bears can get their running game going, it will
open up the pass.
We saw how much Chicago passed the ball in Week 1, but this week will be
different. The Bears wanted to get Andrew Luck on the field last week, (it
worked, they picked him off three times) so they passed the ball a lot. They
will still have to pass, but early in the game, I expect Chicago to pound the
ball through the tackles, in order to try and keep Rodgers off the field.
The Sharp Pick
The
Bears are only 3-7 ATS and SU in their last ten games against Green Bay.
However, I think this may be their week. The Bears are twice the team they were the last two seasons. I think Chicago goes in and gets the win. However,
play it safe and take the points. If you can still find +6, take it while you
can.
My
Pick: Bears +6
Be sure to check out opening odds article on the game here.
Plus, check out our pick on the total here.