Both the Broncos and Colts bring good defenses to the table in Sunday when the two teams meet in Indianapolis. Play the 'under' at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Denver is averaging 20.0 points per game while their defense is allowing 16.8 points per game on 17.2 yards per point. Indianapolis is averaging 27.6 points per game and on defense they are giving up only 16.7 points per game on 20.0 yards per point.
Both defenses make you work for each scoring opportunity which will benefit us here today as we play the 'under.'
Denver has really stepped up when facing teams that average 350 or more yards of offense per game. The Broncos' last eight games in that situation have all fallen 'under' the posted total.
In those eight games Denver averages 17.1 points per game while its opponents average 18.8 points per game.
The Colts respond similarly after allowing 375 or more yards of offense in two consecutive games, posting a 7-19 'under' mark in those contests. They are also 4-14 'under' when playing at home after winning six or more straight games.
A check of our systems database reveals four league-wide systems that are active for Sunday’s game. We want to play 'under' on road underdogs of seven or more points the week after a straight up win on the road as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. These teams have gone ‘under’ at a rate of 0-10 under since 1994.
Play 'under' on NFL teams that won by seven or more points in each of the last two weeks, these teams have gone ‘under’ at a rate of 18-41 ‘under’ since 2008. If they are installed as an underdog that record improves to 3-21 ‘under’ since 2008.
We have two systems that are active for the Colts and they tell us to play 'under' on a home favorite of seven or more points after a straight up win at home as a touchdown or more favorite in its last game; these teams are 1-16 ‘under’ since 2007.
The fact that the Broncos are on a current winning streak of at least two games also favors the 'under.' Play 'under' on home favorites of seven or more points when their opponent is on a two or more game winning streak. These teams are 5-15 ‘under’ since 2007.
With solid situational and technical support for the ‘under’ we will play this game to fall well below the posted total.
Free Pick: Broncos-Colts Under 44 (-110)