Manning showed he still had game as he and his teammates dismantled the Steelers in his first game since neck surgery. Matty Ice threw for 299 passing yards and three TD's in the Falcons win over KC. Read our preview and recommended NFL picks on the game.
The debate this week has been if
Peyton can continue to make the transition from the Denver Broncos to the
Manning Broncos. It certainly looks like that will happen, but it will be a
real struggle this week against a very good Falcons team.
In the Week 1 win, the Falcons
leading ground gainer was Matt Ryan with just 25 yards on three carries; that
will have to be different in this matchup if they are to win the game. This was partly because Atlanta had great success running the no-huddle
offense, which by the way, Manning used in Week 1, too.
The betting line
With both teams running the no-huddle to perfection, the public has forced the
total line far too high. NFL odds makers opened at 49 and -110, and the public has caused
this number to surge to 51 ½ -110 at nearly half of the shops I monitor. I
strongly believe that this line will continue to move higher, so waiting until
Sunday Night to nail down a portion or all of the wager at 51 ½ points is very
attractive. In fact, work and order at the 52 points level, and if not filled, then take what is available Sunday night. I believe the sharp money will come
in at 51 ½ during Sunday’s action.
More than 73% of all best being
made on the total have been on the OVER and this clearly reflects the
irrational exuberance of the betting public. If this level gets above 75%, there
will be compelling reasons to increase this wager to a top-level 20* Titan
Play. Be sure to visit the NFL with John Ryan thread for all of my plays Sunday and for further
validation on this Monday Night opportunity.
For now the UNDER is a 10* graded play
10* graded play UNDER the posted
total in the Denver Broncos matchup set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Monday
night. The simulator shows a high
probability that fewer than 49 points will be scored in this game.
The sim shows a high probability
that Denver (Manning) will gain 100 to 150 net passing yards in this game. In
past games, where Atlanta’s defense has played well against the pass, they
are 29-10 UNDER since 1992.
UNDER NFL tendencies
There has generally been a
reliable tendency for a team that is coming off a strong offensive performance
to then put on a more average offensive performance in the next game. As
mentioned, the Falcons are coming off a strong game, but are 14-4 UNDER in home
games after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game since
I also strongly believe that the
Falcons offensive scheme will be to use running back Michael Turner in power
running plays between the tackle. This not only take time off the clock, but
helps to generate long scoring drives that keep Denver’s offense off the field.
Falcons had just 84 rushing yards last week against a suspect KC defensive
front and they have worked on the zone blocking schemes with the offensive line
all week. This can also serve to wear down one of the better defensive fronts
in the NFL.
Ball control can also be accomplished with play
action and then hitting high percentage slants for five to nine yard gains.
These types of plays are nothing more than long handoffs and serve to control
the clock. Time of possession will be a significant factor in who wins this
game and in a touch of irony, the winner of this game will not because one of
these quarterbacks throws for 350+ yards.
Pick: Take the UNDER