When these two last met, the Steelers took home a 27-23 Super Bowl win over the Cardinals. Look for a different outcome in tonight's preseason tilt when Arizona visits Pittsburgh.
The NFL preseason started this past Sunday and with a game like they had in Canton that night, gamblers are already scratching their heads wondering if they should even bother betting the preseason.
A fake punt for a touchdown, a safety to end the game making it fall right on the point spread, and a “pick six” to round things out made all of the experts out there wonder if preseason football is really as “beat-able” by the gambler as it is made out to be. This handicapper feels we could have another wild one in the Steel Town tonight and I look for the visiting underdog Arizona Cardinals to get a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on ESPN.
Coach Mike Tomlin of the Steelers has been known for doing well in the preseason, but we have to wonder if that will be important in tonight’s game or not. Tomlin has amassed a 7-2 record in preseason games since taking over the reigns in Pittsburgh; however a Super Bowl ring can change the tune of any coach in a hurry. Obviously Tomlin had big shoes to fill when taking over for Bill Cowher and was certainly out to prove he could succeed in leading the Black and Gold two years ago. Tonight there should be nothing to prove for Tomlin as the World Champions open things up and I find no sense in trying to rub it into the Cardinals by beating them again as the Steelers did in the Super Bowl.
Every year the Super Bowl champions get tested when the next season starts and 2009 will be no different. Although nothing can match the intensity of the Super Bowl, you have to figure the Cardinals have had this game circled on their calendar a little more than the Steelers. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has had his off the field problems over the summer and the rest of the team seems to care more about when their next gun shooting session is than about getting back onto the field. We should see the Steelers starting offense in action tonight for only a series or two and who knows how ready they will really be. Standout players like running back Willie Parker will not be around and defensive superstar Troy Polamalu did not even practice on Tuesday.
Dennis Dixon is likely to see some action behind center for the Steelers tonight but don’t look for him to be scrambling for the same success tonight as he did in Oregon. It is a lot different when you have out of sync backup linemen blocking for you than those who once protected a Heisman-hopeful.
In general, you have to watch out for an over-emphasis on the quarterback rotations each team has lined up for a preseason game. I have read so much on the sports forums this week about how everyone should just unload on the St. Louis Rams against the New York Jets tomorrow because Marc Bulger is going to play a lot at quarterback for them. Or to bet the Patriots tonight because Tom Brady seems ready to unleash his fury after a whole season on the bench. And both teams are even getting points as underdogs making them that much more of a lock. But you have to look past this if you want to be successful as a preseason gambler otherwise you will be left without money when the regular season starts.
Quarterbacks are only a small part of a preseason game. Even the best starting quarterback will not help a team win if the right surrounding cast or motivation is not there. Depth on defense and special teams is often very overlooked by squares and sharps alike when it comes to the preaseason. Last year , the world champion New York Giants lost their first preseason game to the league doormat Detroit Lions of all teams – so remember to look at all of the factors.
The Cardinals have been fired up in practice as 12,000 fans showed up on Sunday to watch the team go at it. And with the ESPN cameras on in Pittsburgh, it will only get them that much more excited for a little Super Bowl revenge against the Steelers. While Kurt Warner has the starting quarterback job locked up unlike when last year’s season started, there is a battle brewing between Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre for the backup spot. This may make the Cardinals a little more interesting to watch tonight when they have the ball, and help them focus on being successful in the second half when the victories and point spread covers for preseason games are generally decided.
On defense the Cardinals appear more than ready for the gridiron as sacks and interceptions have been coming left and right in practice against Kurt Warner and the starting offense. They may even have it a bit easier in Pittsburgh tonight as I would expect the Steelers to run a more conservative offense than the Cardinals have been facing on the practice field in Arizona.
Punter Ben Graham should help make a difference for the Cardinals special teams with field position tonight as there can always be quite a few three and outs in a preseason game. Graham punted over 50 times around the league last year and only put the ball in the end zone once for a touchback, so I look for the Steelers having to start deep in their own end for a few drives tonight. This could result in turnovers close to their own end zone and even just one at the right time is all it may take for the Cardinals to get a defensive touchdown on the board.
Home field advantage is another overrated part of preseason games and as much as the Steelers would like to send the crowd home happy tonight, this matchup is more about evaluating how the world champs can still get better. In this league, no Super Bowl champ can be content with putting the same talent and going through the same motions as they did a year before to get them a ring. You have to get the measuring stick out on a day by day basis as you are the top hunted squad in the NFL that everyone is after. A case could even be made that the Steelers are the new “America’s Team” and with that comes nothing but more pressure to perform come the real Week 1.
In some ways, a road team like the Cardinals could have more of an advantage in a game like this. They get to travel away from the grueling practices and constant hometown media in their faces about what it will be like to face the Steelers again. Some of the Arizona roster and coaching staff even have ties to the Pittsburgh area and will surely want to give it their best in front of the family and friends coming out to see them play. No better way to make a season-starting impact than with a big sack on ESPN or a hard hit that will want to make the total sports network bring back the “Jacked Up” segment.
The line for tonight’s game opened and has remained with the Steelers favored by three points. Bookmakers do not know what to make of most preseason games and the betting action will be all about public perception. In a case like this, making the line 2 ½ will get too much Pittsburgh money and 3 ½ will have the underdog backers lined up all the way from Las Vegas to Pittsburgh in wanting to take Arizona. So the strategy seems to be keeping the three flat until the wagers pile up a little more tonight, and play the percentages that the game will not fall on the 3 itself. While a line like this is to be expected, I feel the game might as well be more of a pick’em.
Although I do not recommend blindly taking every preseason underdog on the board like some so-called professionals out there might advise, selectively finding the ones with the right factors going for them like Arizona does tonight is what results in an edge at the betting windows. Take the Cardinals plus the points and good luck this season.
Free Pick: Cardinals +3 (-110)