Carolina Panthers host Minnesota Vikings in Week 8

The Carolina Panthers have a 5-1 spread record in their last six games, with the ‘over’ going 4-2 in that span. They now face their second straight home game in this week's matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who are 1-2 ATS in their three road games.

Sportsbooks opened Carolina as a four-point favorite, with early NFL betting action on the Vikings driving the number down to three. NFL odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 47, which was lifted to 47 ½ at some shops after initial wagers favored the ‘over.’ 

Panthers pull away from Redskins 

Carolina ended a three-game losing streak with last Sunday’s 33-20 win as a 1 ½-point home favorite against the Washington Redskins. The Panthers outscored Washington in the second half, 24-14, notching three red-zone touchdowns in that stretch. 

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton completed 18-of-23 attempts for 256 yards. The rookie finished with a season-high 127.5 passer rating, while adding 59 rushing yards on 10 carries. 

Newton found wide out Steve Smith for a team-high 143 receiving yards, logging seven receptions. Smith’s mate Brandon LaFell caught his squad’s sole touchdown pass as one of his two catches. 

The Panthers’ defense held Washington to 92 rushing yards, while recording three sacks. Cornerback Chris Gamble snagged his first interception of the year, while linebacker James Anderson notched a season-high 10 tackles. 

The contest’s combined 53 points leaped ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 44 ½. Carolina recorded no turnovers in its 36 minutes of possession, while being flagged for 13 penalties that totaled 105 yards. 

Vikings unable to rally at home 

Minnesota logged a second straight defeat in last Sunday’s 33-27 loss as a 10-point home dog against the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings saw a 17-13 halftime lead erased quickly, allowing 20 unanswered points from Green Bay in third quarter. 

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder made his first NFL start, tossing two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Florida State University alum connected on 13-of-32 passes, finishing with 219 yards through the air. 

Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson dashed for 175 yards out of the backfield, making 24 carries. The fifth-year running back reached the end zone once, extending his streak of games with at least one touchdown to three. 

The Vikings’ defense gave up 335 passing yards from Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who completed a stellar 24-of-30 attempts. Minnesota’s Jared Allen logged two of his squad’s four sacks, while he and his mates allowed two touchdowns in the Packers’ four red zone trips. 

The battle’s combined 60 points flew ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 47. Vikings placekicker Ryan Longwell hit 2-of-2 field goals, reaching from 46 and 52 yards out. 

Back the ‘over’ in Carolina 

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. (ET). The early weather forecast at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte calls for a high of 62 degrees, with calm winds. 

For the first of this week's NFL picks I am backing the ‘over,’ agreeing with the early ‘steam.’ The ‘total’ should continue to rise after both clubs’ high-octane affairs last week. 

Carolina has had one of the league’s top five offenses, notching 416.1 YPG. Newton’s sizable 288 YPG of passing should hold serve against a Vikings defense that has given up a sizable 274.9 YPG through the air, ranking 29^th in the league. 

Ponder’s first start for the Vikings resulted in a lowly 59.2 passer rating, but the rookie should have an easier time moving the ball against the Panthers. Carolina has given up 26.1 PPG, while the ‘over’ has cashed at 3-1 in its four home contests. 

Peterson should also be lined up for a big day against the Panthers, who have allowed 133.4 rushing YPG. The Panthers have had no answers for several of their opposition’s marquee running backs, including Atlanta’s Michael Turner and Chicago’s Matt Forte, who ran for 139 and 205 yards, respectively, in matchups during the last four weeks. 

The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in Carolina’s three games with a ‘total’ set of 45 or higher, while also going 2-1 in Minnesota’s three contests played with a ‘total’ of 44 ½ or greater. The sole losing ticket for the ‘over’ in both of these spans failed to cash by one point or less.