Even with Rex Grossman at QB for the Bears, they are the play as home underdogs this Sunday. Cash a ticket on Chicago when they play host to the Tennessee Titans.
Chicago would have been a very good bet here if Kyle Orton were not injured, but I still like the Bears even with Rex Grossman at the controls.
Orton is having a very good season, averaging 6.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) with just four interceptions in 7½ games and zero picks in six games this season. Orton was injured last week and former starter Grossman stepped in to guide the Bears’ comeback win over the Lions in spite of Grossman, who completed just 8 of 18 passes for 3.2 yards per pass play with an interception.
Grossman’s 54.1% career completion percentage and 3.7% interception rate calculate to a little more than 4 points per game worse than Orton’s numbers and I rate the Bears’ attack at 0.5 yards per play worse than average with Grossman at quarterback.
Tennessee’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, so I don’t expect much from the Bears’ attack in this game. However, Tennessee doesn’t figure to light up the scoreboard either as the Titans are 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Bears are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. Tennessee’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is almost made up for Chicago’s home field advantage and the Bears have better special teams. Grossman’s projected interceptions hurt the cause a bit, but my math model picks this game even.
Chicago applies to a decent 55-25 ATS situation and the Bears are certainly the side to be on, but I just don’t trust Grossman enough to play the Bears as a Best Bet and I have another set of ratings that favor Tennessee by 5 points with Grossman at quarterback. I’ll lean with Chicago plus the points.
Prediction: Chicago-17 Tennessee-16
Free Pick: Bears +3 (-110)
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