The Buffalo Bills will be looking to avoid a huge letdown after their biggest come from behind victory in franchise history while the Bengals will try to rebound from a lackluster performance against the Niners.

Bills rally big two weeks in a row

The Buffalo Bills The Buffalo Bills are no doubt the biggest surprise of this young NFL season. They started the 2011 campaign by blowing out the defending AFC West champions, the Kansas City Chiefs 41-7. But that was only the beginning as they rallied in the 2nd half against the Raiders to claim a 38-35 victory over the much improved silver and black.

But no one and I mean no one could ever have envisioned what was to occur in Buffalo in Week 3. Down 21-0, the Bills 2nd half stampede came alive for the second week in a row as they finally solved the riddle that was Tom Brady and the New England Patriots with a nail biting 34-31 victory over their divisional rival. 

These aren’t the Bungles anymore

Early indications are that Cincinnati drafted well when they picked up TCU gunslinger Andy Dalton and speed merchant AJ Green. The combination clicked in the first two games as the Bengals handed their intrastate nemesis the Cleveland Browns a 27-17 opening day loss.

In Week 2 they were clipped by the Broncos 24-22 but the youth movement continued to impress in spite of the loss. However, Week 3 was a completely different story as the offense was dull and listless in a 13-8 snooze fest that saw them drop to 1-2. 

Trends favor the Bills

Bills are 13-6 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 18-10 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Bengals are 14-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009. 

Bengals with or without Benson

I have a theory that 80% of the running backs in the NFL are pretty much interchangeable. Obviously if you find yourself on an NFL roster, you’ve got to be an amazing athlete but there are 10% who are already on the way out and 10% who are true game changers. Therefore, my conclusion is that the vast majority of running backs are going to be within a click or two talent wise.

Enter Cedric Benson, a member in good standing of that vast majority. His appeal of a three game suspension for an arrest assures he will play on Sunday but I wouldn’t have downgraded the Bengals if his backup Bernard Scott carried the ball all day. As pedestrian as the Bengals ground game is (ranked 17th with 96.7 yards per game), they should get well against a Bills defense that ranks 24th not only against the run but also against the pass.

How does this game shake out?

Andy Dalton BengalsNFL odds makers are listing the Bills at -3, and many handicappers are more than happy to pick Buffalo to cover the small spread. I, however, am taking the Bengals +3 as my NFL Pick in this game.

I don’t care how the Bills try to avoid a letdown from their euphoric victory last week, they are going to be deflated as they travel into Bengaltown. The Cats have an excellent defense which will pose many more problems than the anemic New England D and the Bengals will move the chains against a Bills defensive squad that hasn’t pressured the quarterbacks nor stopped the run cold.

They are at the mercy of the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and his aerial assault. They are a 3-0 team that could very easily be 1-2 if not for two consecutive 2nd half rallies. On the other hand, the Bengals are at home and licking their wounds from the first subpar performance of Dalton’s young career. This is a good spot for the Bengals and a trap game for the Bills. We see the Bengals winning but we’ll grab the 3 just in case. 

Bengals +3.