Who would have though that the Bengals defense would grade out slightly better than the normally stout Ravens defense at this point in the season? Take the big points in this spot.
The Baltimore Ravens are still winning games, but they are doing things a bit differently this season by winning with a better offense and a mediocre defense rather than a dominating defense and a mediocre offense.
The Ravens actually haven't been all that great so far, as their improved offense is only 0.3 yards per play better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) while their defense has given up 5.2 yppl to a collection of teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average team.
The Ravens were able to limit bad offensive teams Kansas City and Cleveland to an average of just 187 total yards but they gave up an average of 397 yards at 6.1 yppl to San Diego and New England.
The Cincinnati Bengals offense is somewhere in between, as they are not as bad as Kansas City and Cleveland, but not as good at the Chargers and Patriots. Cincinnati is actually slightly worse than average offensively so far this season, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, but the Bengals' defense has played well in allowing just 5.1 yppl (excluding the fluke 87 yard tipped pass TD by Denver that beat them in week 1) to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team.
The Ravens only have a slight edge on Cincinnati overall from the line of scrimmage, but they have an edge in special teams and in projected turnovers. My math model favors Baltimore by just 5½ points and I'll lean with the Bengals plus the points despite a solid 176-98-5 ATS statistical indicator that favors Baltimore
Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 17
Free Pick: Bengals +8½ (-110)
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