Once the NFL labor issues were solved this summer, fans of
the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans circled Week 8 as a key date in
their team's chase for the AFC South title. Things have changed for one of the duo.
This Sunday's matchup at LP Field in Nashville (1:00 PM ET) remains crucial for
Mike Munchak and the Titans. But the
only thing Jim Caldwell and the Colts are chasing is the attempt to avoid going
the entire 2011 NFL betting campaign without a win.
Tennessee
is laying nine points in the game, though there were some 10-point sides out
there for a while. While the spread has
remained fairly steady this week, the total has gone up from an opening 42 to
the current 43.5.
Both Munchak and Caldwell coach clubs that are coming off
major whippings last week. Indianapolis' seventh loss to begin the 2011 season was a
62-7 rout at the hands of the Saints in New
Orleans.
Munchak and the Titans didn't lose by 55, but their 41-7 defeat at home
to the Houston Texans was even more embarrassing, and potentially more damaging
to Tennessee's
playoff aspirations.
Through the first six weeks, the absence of Peyton Manning
was a go-to absolution for Indy losses.
Even the 34-7 loss to the Texans in Week 1 could be excused, the team's
first regular season game since 1997 without their star QB, the first game
after the shortened preseason, and coming on the road to a solid Houston
team. But last week's effort in Crescent City had nothing to do with Manning.
The Saints are obviously a good team, a very good team, but
it was the Colts' poor play more than New
Orleans. Curtis
Painter pretty much laid an egg, completing just 9-of-17 passes and turning it
over twice, once directly for a New
Orleans touchdown.
The former Boilermaker had three pretty good games leading up to the
debacle at the Superdome, and the odds are good that he will bounce back with a
better effort this week.
He's not the long-term answer for the Colts, though he will
serve as the only answer this season.
One of three winless teams, and the only one at 0-7, there's a very real
chance Indy could be 0-10 heading into its bye (Week 11). What a shame that the Dolphins aren't on the
Colts' schedule so we could see, and bet on, the Andrew Luck Bowl.
At least the Colts can say their loss to the Texans wasn't
as bad as Tennessee's. Titans fans were headed for Tootsie's Wild
Orchid Lounge early after the Texans jumped to an early lead and made a mockery
of Tennessee
in every phase of the game. Houston had more than a quarter's
worth of advantage in time of possession, and a whopping 518-148 gap in total
yards.
Nothing went right for the Titans, to say the least. Matt Hasselbeck easily had his worst day in
his first season with Tennessee,
a thumb injury taking part of the blame.
He's probable and will play Sunday, and he's not the problem on offense
where Chris Johnson and the running game have never taken off. Munchak says he's staying with Johnson...for
now.
This has been a funny series in recent years, with the Colts
7-3 SU and the Titans 7-3 ATS. Indy won
both games a year ago, but Tennessee
covered as the underdog on each occasion.
The Colts are 13-3 SU the past eight schedules, and haven't lost on this
field since a Monday Night Football contest in late-December 2007.
The UNDER has also been a big winner with nine paydays in
the last 11 meetings.
Taking a Chance: Outside
of the turnover battle, whoever runs the ball the best this Sunday, will decide
who beats the NFL odds. Tennessee can
still win outright with another poor effort by Johnson, as long as Hasselbeck
returns to form and the Titans run defense shores itself up.
There isn't any reason
to expect Johnson to break out and look like his old self, and there's less
reason to think Indianapolis
finally puts it all together. There were
some signs on Wednesday that this line would close a bit lower, but the UNDER
trend in this series catches my eye.
Titans 23-14 is my pick.