Cowboys vs. Giants: NFL Picks

The Dallas Cowboys head north to open the NFL season against the New York Giants. Join us as we follow the NFL odds and the line movement all the way up to kickoff. Where will the best value lie for our NFL picks?

Opening Night is finally here and atmosphere at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ will be electric to say the least. First, there is the Super Bowl Ring Ceremony, and the fans will be lathered into a frenzy before this game even take place. They are the defending Champions, but with that distinction comes the bulls-eye that marks the team with every opponent they will play this season. By many accounts, the Giants will play the most difficult schedule of any NFL team this season. 

There is no team in the NFL, that wants to defeat these Giants more than the Dallas Cowboys, who lost two games to them last season. The Giants went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys 37-34 covering as 4 ½ point dogs. The Giants gained 110 rushing yards on 31 carries and Manning threw for 400 yards on 27-for-47 passing. The Cowboys had impressive numbers in their own right gaining 139 rushing yards on 24 carries with Romo passing for 305 yards on 21-for-31 passing. The deciding factor was time-of-possession, where the Giants held the ball for 34:19 to Dallas’ 25:41.

In the second game, The Giants got out to a 21-0 half-time lead and went on to win 31-14 and covered as three point favorites. This game played UNDER an inflated 48 point total. Dallas failed to rush the ball well gaining just 49 yards in 16 carries. The Cowboys gained 251 passing yards on 29-for-37 passing. They had seven penalties for 43 yards. The Giants gained 106 rushing yards on 31 carries and passed for 331 yards on 24-for-33 throwing. Time-of-possession again favored the Giants significantly by a 34.33 to 25:27 margin.

The Cowboys will have to even up the time-of-possession differential that occurred in the last two losses and be far more disciplined and not make costly mistakes resulting in penalties.

Earlier in the week I had decided to rate this as a 5* play, but now I will add the Cowboys to my NFL picks as a 10* play and will work to get 4 ½ points without having to pay up. If you can only get four then that is valid too. It never hurts to work ‘orders’ even if you think the game will decided convincingly in your favor against the spread. 

Dallas is going to be at least a 5* graded play and may be upgraded to a 10* play Wednesday morning. Be sure to visit the NFL with John Ryan thread several times a day to get all of my validated free NFL picks and recommendations. This was by far the most populated thread at SBR for the NFL and for very good reasons. Winning and unique meaningful facts that you can use to make money over the course of the season. 

I like the Dallas defense a lot entering this game and for the season. This unit will emerge as one of the best in the NFC. I will hedge this though, by stating that the 49ers will certainly have the best defense in the NFC. 

The Giants run the ball mainly between the tackles and then use play action to exploit overly aggressive defensive ends, who get out of position. However, Dallas some very good and athletic defensive ends, who have strong football IQ’s. I am not concerned that four-time Pro Bowler and Dallas nose tackle Ratcliff will not be playing in this game. Ironically, with him out of the lineup, the Giants will look to run the ball even more between the tackles testing backups Brent and Lissemore. This will only make the defensive ends in Coleman and Hatcher that much more disciplined on the corners for containment and will allow Ware opportunities to shoot gaps. I strongly believe that the Giants will struggle to find a solid consistent offensive rhythm.

Dallas lost two very close games to the Giants and the fact that the Giants are defending Super Bowl Champs makes this game all the more important and meaningful for Dallas to win. For once, owner Jerry Jones will be right in stating that his “boys will kicks the Giants asses”. He stated that during the summer and his team has been focused on this game the entire time. 

The defending Super Bowl Champion Giants and the division rival Dallas Cowboys will start the 2012-13 NFL season. The NFL betting line for this game opened with the Giants as 3 ½ point favorites and the public has steadily been betting the Giants moving the line to four points. It appears, at least for now, that the line has reached an equilibrium level, but I do believe that the line will reach 4 ½ as gametime approaches. I had mentioned on the NFL with Peter Loshak video, that I certainly like Dallas in this matchup. 

Even though I believe that Dallas will win this game, it never hurts working a number to gain the greatest advantage possible in the NFL. Many times, a game can be decided by the ‘hook’ so working an order at the 4 ½ level is a solid decision with more than 48 hours till game time.

The total for this game opened at 47 -110, but the UNDER has been consistently across the board moving the line to 45 ½ -110 on average. Booker has a 45 point line with the majority of shops set at 45 ½ and 46 points. Five Dimes currently has a 45 ½ -110 level. I like playing the OVER in this game. 

My NFL betting simulator shows a high probability that 47 or more points will be scored in this game. Further projections show that Giants passing attack, led by Eli Manning, will have a big night and will average better than eight yards per pass play. IN past games, where the Giants have achieved this level of high passing performance they are 11-5 OVER the past three seasons and 38-14 ATS since 1992.

Dallas is 38-13 OVER since 1992 when they have ALLOWED eight or more passing yards per plays since 1992. 

Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants

Wednesday night will mark the opening kickoff to the 2012 NFL season. The NFL commissioner’s office has matched two divisional rivals that have high aspirations for the 2012 season, with the New York Giants on display as the defending Super Bowl Champions.

This is also the day (Friday) that teams must cut 23 players to reach the 53-man roster. Needless to say, this is where the coaching staffs live on caffeinated beverages and where sleep is not an option.

Making the team

The Dallas Cowboys had plenty of questions to answer entering the season, so I will focus this introductory preview on who I believe will make the roster among the key positions. The Cowboys will carry three quarterbacks with Tony Romo, the obvious starter, and then backups Kyle Orton and Stephen McGee. They will carry five running backs, and this has become a critical position for NFL teams given the high probability of injury at this grueling position. The five in depth chart order will be DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones, Lawrence Vickers, Phillip Tanner, and Lance Dunbar.

The Cowboys could elect to go with two quarterbacks, but RB Dunbar had an excellent final preseason game and coaches are quite satisfied with the strong depth they have at running back. This then gives them the luxury of carrying three quarterbacks, all of which can play the game and understand the offensive system.

The Cowboys have some of the best Wide Recievers in the NFC East division, but limited to the two starters. Starting will be Dez Bryant, who will be surrounded by quality people to keep his head screwed on right, and Miles Austin. Andre Holmes, Cole Beasley, Kevin Ogletree, and Dwayne Harris will round out the five-man group of pass catchers and play makers, but four WR sets will not be a strong formation for Dallas. I do think that Dallas will be looking to upgrade the last three of this group should a veteran player be released by another NFL team. 

Romo’s go to pass catcher, Jason Whitten, will be out for this game, but he is expected to possibly play in Week 2. His backup duo of John Phillips and James Hanna are also strong grabbers of the football in tight spots, and will fill in well for the absent Whitten.

This is an area that I feel favors the Cowboys. The Giants secondary was torched during the first eight weeks in 2011 and then got back healthy starters and played far better down the stretch. They are still vulnerable to vertical routes and they will use the cover-2 often to prevent any big Dallas pass plays downfield. The cover-2 allows the middle of the field to become free and this where those aforementioned tight ends can execute high percentage ball-control type pass plays. This duo could have 12 catches combined in this game.

The Dallas offensive line will have its hands full with the Giants defensive front seven. This battle will decide final score. Dallas has acquired center Ryan Cook. This probably means Arkin will be cut today and Cook will provide strong backup support to starting center Phil Costa and add greater depth to the right side of the offensive line. He has started 40 games in the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings and comes into this situation very healthy, as he has started only seven of those 40 games over the past three seasons.

Cowboys vs. Giants NFL Pick

When it comes to placing my NFL picks, my initial lean here is on the Dallas Cowboys. There have been some sharp money already bet on the Giants, and I realize that the Giants have had the Cowboys number ATS for several seasons. However, I do believe the Dallas offensive line is much stronger than last year’s edition and they will be able to contain the Giants very talented defensive front.