Denver Broncos Odds

The Denver Broncos are ushering in a new era by winning the Manning Sweepstakes but how poised are they to go from pretender to contender? Lets take a look at the new Denver Broncos and decide how they stack up.

 

 

 

The verdict is still out on Peyton Manning and won't be answered until we are well into the opening portion of the season, but recent developments with other members of the Broncos may be cause for concern. 

The team's legal counsel must have had their ears perked up because linebacker D.J. Williams is not only appealing his six-game suspension for violating the league's performance enhancing drug policy but is scheduled to go on trial in mid-August on a DUI charge. If that's not enough to make the team grit their teeth, wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is in the thick of a civil trial that accuses him of dispensing a date-rape drug in the cocktail of his accuser. Not exactly the family friendly kind of guy the team is marketing to its fan base in Denver and around the league.

Finally, with about a week left until training camp opens, Elvis Dumervil was recently arrested for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon in a road rage incident that happened over the weekend. This recent charge will be scrutinized even more carefully by Roger Goodell and his minions due to an assault charge in 2010 that went away quietly. 

The lingering effects will not be known until the cases are resolved but chaos in the locker room does not bode well for production on the field.

 

 

 

The Broncos begin the Manning era at home against a team known for a bone jarring defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers come to town, and it will be a stern, early test to see if the rust has truly worn off of Manning’s Hall of Fame arm.

The knock on the Broncos - yes, people knock everything even if a team hasn’t played a regular season game - is that Denver may indeed have the most prolific passer since John Elway, but who is going to catch the ball?

At this early moment, Denver is a -1 point favorite, but it appears that NFL odds may flip flop once we get down to crunch time. It seems to me that asking Denver to defeat a team that can create havoc in the backfield is a bit much, particularly when you consider Manning has been out of the game for over a year and may not have those quick twitch muscles properly conditioned. 

At this early stage, I see the potential for Denver to have a playoff contending season, but some of the kinks will need to be worked out in the early going. Look for Pittsburgh to exploit Manning’s dearth of receivers and put enough points on the board to win the game and cover the point spread. 

The pick is Pittsburgh +1.

 

 

Defensive lineman Ty Warren is back in the fold after agreeing to a pay cut, one, incidentally, that was not quite as severe as the Broncos had in mind. In order to get the injury plagued veteran lineman into a Broncos uniform, the team met Warren halfway and have now added depth to their defensive front, hoping Warren can remain injury free this season.

Peyton Manning has always had star power, but some wondered whether or not that star had dimmed just a bit after his absence from the game. According to the Denver Broncos marketing people, Manning shines as brightly as ever. The Broncos have never had a problem selling out general admission tickets to Sports Authority Field since it opened in 2001, but luring the high end customers to their luxury suites has been another issue. 

Last year the Broncos had 5 of their 130 suites go vacant. Doesn't sound like much, but it certainly would not prompt any wise businessman to build more when he can't even sell what he has. Not unless you sign Peyton Manning and draw on his star appeal. The Broncos will be converting 64 lower priced seats into eight additional suites.  Looks like even the suits will be going to Broncos games this season.

 

 

Jack Del Rio brings not only a new defensive philosophy to the Broncos but an entirely new strength and conditioning aspect to the team as well. Del Rio, the recently deposed head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars and now defensive coordinator for the Broncos, decided he would summon strength and conditioning coach Luke Richesson to Denver and overhaul a conditioning system that had been intact for seventeen years. Richesson brought his indispensible assistants Jason George, Anthony Lomando and Mike Eubanks in to craft a program that is unique to the Broncos organization and the league.

Del Rio had this to say about Richesson's impact on the organization, "Luke, in the time that he had under his belt there at API, was very productive in getting guys ready for the (NFL Scouting) Combine, getting them ready to have special years, and I found that a lot of my squad wanted to go out there to Arizona and train. So I met with him and brought him in...I think he's a really good coach. He’s all about helping the team win. He’s a tireless worker, and I think he’ll be an asset to the organization.” 

 

 

The starting quarterback position in Denver was cemented the moment Peyton Manning inked his record pact, but ever since Tim Tebow was ticketed out of town, there has been little mention of Manning's backup until recently.

The Broncos drafted Brock Osweiler in the second round and acquired Caleb Hanie as a free agent.  But, somebody in the organization must have realized that Osweiler might be better served as an observer, in the event of a Manning injury, rather than getting a baptism by fire if he is to have the best chance of succeeding as the heir apparent once Peyton hangs up the cleats.  Hanie looked so good for Chicago in relief of an injured Jay Cutler last season that the Bears decided to gift him to the rest of the league and allow him to throw interceptions for someone else.  The Broncos eventually signed him and became that someone else. 

So Denver did what any club would do when having a dearth of experience at the backup QB position....they decided to make the frontrunner an undrafted kid from the University of Minnesota who toiled on the practice squad last season and has thrown only one ball as a professional.  Yes, that kid would be Adam Weber and, as of this moment, he looks to be the odds on favorite as Manning's number two.  But stay tuned, the Broncos could get crazy and, dare I say it, sign a veteran with experience.

 

 

When the Broncos landed Peyton Manning they had no idea he would be the conduit to landing a veteran wide receiver. Brandon Stokley was resigned to hanging up the pads and watching NFL games on Sundays instead of playing in them. But a phone call changed all that when Manning invited his former teammate in Indianapolis to join him at Duke University to play catch in February. Stokley joked it was more the allure of watching a Duke-UNC game that prompted him to respond.

Stokley decided to give football one more chance after being injured for much of last season after playing only two games for the Giants. When the Broncos won the Manning sweepstakes it was clear where Stokley would resume his playing career. He has been extended an invitation to tryout and it’s up to him and his 36 year old body whether or not he will stick on the opening day 53 man roster.

Stokley appears to have overcome his injuries and if he does make the team, will serve as a mentor to a stable of young receivers who will need to learn how a future Hall of Fame quarterback wants things done and routes run. Stokley may just mentor himself right out of a job but he stated, "I'd rather take the high road and help somebody out. If it costs me a job, it costs me a job because that would mean that I wasn't good enough."

 

 

Defensive end Ty Warren, formerly of the New England Patriots, is taking a hardline stance regarding his contract with the team. The man has not taken the field in two years, and the Broncos are asking him to take a pay cut to remain in a Broncos uniform. Warren does not feel a decrease is justified and has been noticeably absent from the team’s OTA’s (Organized Team Activities). Denver ranked a disappointing 22^nd against the rush last season, allowing 126.3 yards per game on the ground, therefore Warren may be staking his claim on that glaring weakness in Denver’s defensive arsenal. 

However, the Broncos are looking at the combined $7 million plus they’ve paid Warren over the past two seasons to recuperate from separate injuries. Warren is scheduled to make approximately $4 million this season, but the Broncos would be more comfortable spending about a million and a half to get the 31 year old injury plagued pass rusher back on the field. Chances are Warren will return for less than he is scheduled to make but more than the Broncos are currently offering. 

The good news is that the team appears to be making progress in signing kicker Matt Prater to a long term deal. The team franchised Prater with a $2.6 million tender but rumors are swirling that a 5 year deal is in the offing if they can come to terms.

 

 

Though the big news in Denver has been all things Peyton, defense is not being ignored. The Broncos just brought Cory Undlin, formerly of Jacksonville, on board as their new defensive quality control coach. Certainly first year defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio had a hand in that decision as Del Rio was deposed as head coach for the Jags late last year. 

The Broncos will be opening their second set of organized team activities (OTA’s) on Wednesday and hope, that though these sessions are voluntary, that defensive tackle Ty Warren and kicker Matt Prater will be in attendance after being no-shows for the first set last week. Derek Wolfe, the team’s first pick of the draft (2^nd round 36^th overall), cannot attend as his Cincinnati Bearcat class does not graduate until June 9^th. 

Veteran Champ Bailey had this to say about the new look Broncos and their new defensive coaches, "We didn't have this time last year, because of the lockout, but it's like a lot of things where you have a new boss. We have a new defensive coordinator, so a big part of this is just learning what he expects from me, where he expects me to be, how he wants me to play, just figure out what he expects from this defense."

 

 

After winning the Manning sweepstakes, general manager John Elway opted out of the first round in trades at 25 and again at 31 in order to acquire what amounted to an additional fourth round selection in exchange for moving from 25 to 36 (fourth pick of the 2nd round) overall. It doesn’t sound like much value to me, but Elway has a master plan and obviously felt his guy would be there at 36. Was defensive tackle Derek Wolfe that guy? The world will never know, but he will bolster the Broncos defensive line and hopefully be an immediate contributor.

However, when they used their own 2nd round pick (57th overall) it was more than a tad surprising they chose a project in Arizona State product Brock Osweiler. The 6’7” quarterback has a slow delivery and will be riding the pine for the foreseeable future while Peyton Manning leads the offense. Do the Broncos have that luxury? Well, they may be odds on favorites to win the AFC West but will need impact players if they are to contend for a championship.

The Broncos then traded up in the 3rd round and nabbed speedy but undersized Ronnie Hillman of San Diego State, Omar Bolden (ASU, cornerback, 4th round), Philip Blake (Baylor, 4th round, center), Malik Jackson (Tennessee, defensive end, 5th round), and Danny Trevathan (Kentucky, outside linebacker, 6th round).

 

 

There is nothing, short of a World Championship, that will make more news in the Mile High city than the acquisition of Peyton Manning this offseason. That being said, hitting it right in this year's draft is essential if the Broncos want to bolster their defense and supplement their Manning led offense with another weapon or two. 

Selecting a defensive tackle with the 25^th overall pick seems to be the general consensus for all the pundits and talking heads as Dontari Poe of Memphis, Jerel Worthy of Michigan State and Michael Brockers of LSU are being discussed as future Broncos with that first round pick. Others have conjectured that running back Doug Martin of Boise State may be the heir apparent to Knowshon Moreno who could very well be out of the Denver picture after this season once his contract is up. 

The way I look at running backs in the 1^st round in today's NFL is simply a luxury few teams can afford. This is an NFL that has adopted the West Coast offense to such a degree that is no longer contained to those pass happy offenses with stud quarterbacks and speedy receivers. The rule changes have made the pass the rule rather than the exception and though running backs still have a place in the game they are now second class citizens. Unless the next Emmitt Smith or Eric Dickerson is looming I believe plucking a runner in the 1^st round is reckless and I don't believe John Elway is that imprudent. The Broncos will probably draft a running back but it is highly unlikely they will use the 25^th overall pick to do so.

 

 

Denver was the epicenter of Tebowing last season but Broncos management, John Elway in particular, was not comfortable with a quarterback who was long on charisma but short on passing. The soap opera continues as Tebow has been dealt to the Jets and Denver is now officially Peyton’s Place. But what will become of a team who has not tasted a World Championship since the legendary John Elway led them to glory in the late 90’s?

The Manning Era

The first question we have to ask ourselves before we get caught up in Manning-mania is how good is the surgically repaired Peyton Manning? We can only conclude that he looked good enough in workouts to have a bevy of teams pursue him and publicly spurn their incumbent quarterbacks. However, that does not preclude us from wondering if Manning is game ready and able to pick up where he left off before the surgeon’s scalpel incised the back of his neck.

And if indeed he is able to reclaim a fraction of his former prodigious passing expertise will he be able to withstand the punishment of blitzing linebackers and the barbarous behemoths that roam the defensive front. It’s a 96 million dollar gamble that the Broncos are willing to take but are you as comfortable putting up your hard earned money and banking on Manning to lead his new team to the Promised Land?

The Odds

Shortly after the Super Bowl 5Dimes posted a total of 7.5 wins for the Broncos for the upcoming 2013 season. Once Manning inked his blockbuster deal with Denver that total rose sharply as offshore books are currently dealing between 9.5 and 10. The odds for Denver to win the 2013 Super Bowl fell drastically as well with the pre-Manning Broncos getting no love at 75-1 and now they sit at 14-1 at 5Dimes. 

It’s interesting that a team who is only expected to garner nine or so wins has odds to win the Lombardi Trophy lower than all but a handful of teams. Sounds like a suckers bet to me and not one of my free picks. But then again, that’s why they play the games. 

Who besides Manning?

We all know Denver loves to run the ball as they were 1^st in that statistical category during the 2011 regular season but you can be sure that Willis McGahee will take a backseat now that the laser show has arrived. But who will be the object of Peyton’s affections when it comes to checking off and locking on? Demaryius Thomas will certainly be a target but lo and behold, Denver used Manning’s signing to lure a premier receiver in Andre Caldwell.

"He gets the best out of the receivers," said Caldwell, who spent the past four seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals. "That's a big reason why I came."

Now that Manning has a few choice targets, the offensive line will have to adjust to blocking holes instead of creating them. Tight end Daniel Fells has departed for greener pastures in the already tight end lush environs of New England. Look for Denver to sign a tight end to complement Manning and replace Fells.

The defense has super stud Von Miller at strongside linebacker to go along with Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey and the recently signed Michael Adams to replace the 38 year old Brian Dawkins. Defense was mediocre ranking in the thick of the pack in most categories but they will now get the added bonus of having an offense who can stay on the field and take away some of their burden.

It will be interesting to see who else the Broncos can attract and who they decide to draft to build around their new franchise player. If Manning is still as good as advertised then the Broncos will be in for a bounce in terms of wins but if he breaks down, it will be a setback from which this management team may never recover.