With the back-ups playing the bulk of the early preseason games, depth is the crucial factor in picking the winner. And it's depth that will lead Houston to the cover at Kansas City tonight.
Here is an interesting stat: Current NFL head coaches in the league that took over their current positions from 2006 until last year are just 3-10 ATS in their debut home preseason game with their new team.
That's a tough trend for first year Kansas City coach Todd Haley to snap as he makes first start at Arrowhead Stadium. The biggest noise coming out of camp lately is star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe being placed with the third-team wide receiver group on the depth chart this week which makes us scratch our heads. Veteran receiver Bobby Engram admitted to the media that Haley is not at all happy with his receivers up to this point.
In his rookie season as a head coach, the former 'Zona Offensive Coordinator has a tough gig taking over this Chiefs team which is arguably top to bottom the least talented team in the league. Also another question is how is this team going to do in their new 3-4 defensive system under ex-Cardinals DC Clancy Pendergast?
On the other hand Gary Kubiak's Houston Texans have legit playoff chances this season for the first time in franchise history. Both of these teams are young but the difference is Kubiak's depth chart as this game wears on.
Frank Bush, who has been an assistant with the team, will now take over as Defensive Coordinator. They are going to employ an eight-man front and force offenses to go through the air, so you can expect a lot more pressure and blitzing from the Texans this season. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs QB's react. Bush actually worked as LB coach under KC Defensive Coordinator Clancy Pendergast for three seasons in Arizona.
The Chiefs brought in some veteran guys for leadership like Mike Brown, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer, Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel in the offseason. All of them will likely not be going full throttle here in these preseason games. The Texans are loaded with young talent that may not be as familiar to the betting public outside of the Houston area, loads of young guys in their second, third and fourth years in the league and getting comfortable under Kubiak's system who have something to play for this preseason. They are clearly much deeper than the Chiefs at almost every position.
A key when handicapping who will cover the spread in these preseason games is knowing the QB rotation. If we compare starters of course Matt Schaub has the edge on Matt Cassel. They don't matter as much because they will only be playing in the first quarter. We have to handicap the remainder of the game with the second and third string QBs.
Let's look at Houston's back-ups, Dan Orvlosky and Rex Grossman, and their preseason stats from last year. Orvlosky had a 59% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Grossman had a 56% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Now let's glance at Chiefs back-ups Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen. Croyle had a 58% completion percentage and 0 TD/1 INT. Thigpen had a 45% completion percentage and 2 TD/3 INTs. It's a clear-cut advantage who is going to control the ball more effective down the stretch of the game and that is the Houston back-ups.
Also remember that Croyle, who we believe will play the biggest hunk of time in this game, missed all of the offseason practices rehabbing from knee surgery, and returned to play when the Chiefs started training camp two weeks ago. So he will be rusty still without a doubt. In the fourth quarter it will be Grossman in for Houston and Thigpen for Kansas City; we'd much rather back the QB with Super Bowl experience over Thigpen. Experience down the stretch is key in these August games.
Some interesting notes: Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight preseason games as a dog. In Kubiak's tenure they are 7-3-2 ATS in preseason games. The Chiefs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games. Houston has won three of the last four meetings in the preseason and regular season both straight up and ATS.
Free Pick: Texans +2½ (-110)