The Steelers are obviously the better team, but this is a terrible scheduling spot for them, especially vs. a Jets team coming off a bye. Take the points with the home dog.
Spots don’t get much worse than the one that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be in on Sunday when they take on the New York Jets.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Pittsburgh is coming off three consecutive divisional games, emerging victorious from their battles against Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland. Now, what’s coming up for the Steelers? The answer is big games against Cincinnati, New England and Jacksonville. This game positively screams “flat spot” for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
Pittsburgh is not the same team away from Heinz Field. Both of their previous losses came on the road. While Pittsburgh has outscored their opponents by an average of 20 points per game (30-10) at home, their road results are much closer, winning by an average of seven points per game. Throw out their Week 1 showing at Cleveland (a long way in the rear view mirror by now), and the Steelers have actually been outscored in their other three road games combined. Yes, this is a very good Steelers team, and I expect them to win this game. But asking Pittsburgh to notch a double digit road victory is not something I’m willing to do this week.
I like to back bad teams coming off a bye week, particularly playoff teams from a season ago. When they get their bye, these squads have extra time to stew about how poorly their season has gone. They hear it from every angle – friends, family, media members – “you guys stink”. And, nearly universally, these teams come back from their bye with a vengeance poised to prove to the world that they are not as bad as they’ve looked. Meanwhile, their opponent looks at their lowly record and naturally thinks ‘hey, we can beat this team.” As such, the horrific underdog in these games nearly always come out more motivated and more prepared than their opponents, leading to a long term track record of success.
The Jets have been competitive, they just haven’t been winning. Five of their eight losses have come by a touchdown or less, and two more games were within that TD range before one final score in the closing minutes. In other words, seven of the Jets eight losses have come in competitive fashion, the lone exception against New England is perfectly understandable. New starting QB Kellen Clemens looked just fine in previous action, carrying the Jets to point spread success at Baltimore and against Washington.
Look for Clemens to provide the spark that the Jets desperately need, keeping this game close.
Free Pick: Jets +9½