The 49ers haven’t dropped back-to-back games over the course of the Jim Harbaugh regime, which places them in a nice bounce-back spot against the Dolphins. Let’s take a closer look at this non-conference matchup from a betting perspective.
Dolphins have lost four of their last five
Miami has lost four of its last five games after winning three in a row, including a 23-16 setback to the New England Patriots as eight-point home underdogs last week. The Dolphins have also gone UNDER the total in seven of their last eight games, which could be the play in this spot, considering the 49ers lead the NFL in allowing just 4.49 yards per play.
49ers in bounce-back mode
San Francisco was handed a 16-13 overtime loss by the St. Louis Rams as 7.5-point road favorites in Week 13, but sports bettors shouldn’t be discouraged by that result when making their pro football predictions in this matchup. The 49ers have gone 7-1 against the spread (ATS) off an upset loss as a favorite since 2010, with the UNDER going 7-1 in that situation.
Rookies continue to rake in the cash
NFL rookie quarterbacks are 28-12-2 ATS this season, which provides the Dolphins a ton of value when looking over the pro football odds page. Ryan Tannehill has compiled a disappointing 72.3 passer rating this year, but the offensive line has kept him upright, allowing just 25 sacks in 12 games. It’s important to note that left tackle Jake Long left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a torn triceps injury and is out for the year.
Kaepernick gets the call again
49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will make his fourth straight start on Sunday, as he’ll try to make some plays downfield against the league’s 27th ranked passing defense. San Francisco has averaged just 201.3 passing yards per game this season with Kaepernick and Alex Smith under center, which isn’t surprising due to possessing the NFL’s second-best rushing attack.
Interesting note about this series
I’m not a big fan of historical statistics when handicapping the NFL, but this one is hard to ignore. All five of San Francisco’s victories against Miami have come by at least 15 points, which would cover the 10-point spread that’s currently listed on the SBR odds page. The 49ers are also 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last two-plus campaigns.
Even though I feel the betting odds are a bit inflated in this contest, I’m going to recommend that readers back the 49ers in this spot, as they land in a favorable situational spot. I wouldn’t make this one of your biggest wagers of the weekend—Miami has been known to cash a ticket or two as a road underdog.
NFL Week 14 Pick: San Francisco 49ers -10