Neither team has shown much on the defensive side of the ball this season, and Houston's offense has the edge making the Texans the play Sunday in Cleveland.
These two teams are equally bad defensively, but Houston is likely to outgain the Browns in this game, as their attack averages 6.0 yards per play and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses.
Cleveland, meanwhile, has averaged just 5.0 yppl and rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average. Cleveland’s offense has performed better in Brady Quinn’s two starts (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but that has more to do with the rushing number (actually one 72 yard run by backup RB Harrison) than it does with Quinn, who has actually been a bit worse than former starter Derek Anderson from a compensated yards per pass play perspective.
Quinn, however, has not thrown an interception in two starts and that will be a key in this game, as Houston’s Sage Rosenfels has thrown seven interceptions in 3½ games this season and has a career interception rate of 5.1%. Cleveland is likely to make up for the difference in total yards with a turnover advantage, but my math model favors the Browns by only 1 point even with a 1.3 projected turnover advantage.
Cleveland applies to a negative 36-99-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense (bad defensive teams are bad as favorites) and that angle applies as long as the Browns are favored by 3 points or more. Houston should cover the spread in this game if they have a -2 in turnover margin or better and that is likely to be the case.
Predicted Score: Houston-27 Cleveland-26
Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)
© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.