Peyton Manning has been off after missing preseason, and the Colts are struggling both with the run and on defense. The Texans can score and get the call as home dogs.
The Indianapolis Colts are not the same team as recent seasons, and this contest vs. the Houston Texans is hardly a walkover.
Peyton Manning missed all of training camp and the pre-season, and he hasn’t looked right the first three games of this season while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 YPP to an average quarterback).
The bye week should help Manning work out the kinks and I still rate the Colts’ pass attack among the league’s best, but Indy’s rushing attack has been bad (3.6 yards per rush) and Houston should be pretty fired up to be playing a game at home after starting the season with three road losses (home dogs or picks are 7-4 ATS at home after 3 consecutive road losses).
I had high expectations for the Texans this season and I used them last week for a Best Bet winner in their 27-30 overtime loss as a seven-point dog. Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without reigning NFL Defensive MVP Bob Sanders in the lineup (he’s out 4 to 6 weeks with an injured ankle).
The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 YPP to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders, which is a worse than average performance, and I think the Texans will move the ball pretty well in this game. Houston’s defense hasn’t looked good this season, allowing 5.8 YPP to teams that would combine to average 5.2 YPP against an average team, so Manning could bust out with a good game if the bye week served to get his timing back.
My ratings favor Houston by one point, so I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.
Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)
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