Houston has a huge motivational edge here, as they are trying to finish with a winning record for the first time in team history, while the Colts are locked in to the two seed.
Tony Dungy’s track record as the Indianapolis Colts head coach is remarkably consistent, and we do not expect much change when the Colts face the hot Houston Texans Sunday.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]This is Dungy’s sixth year on the job in Indianapolis. In his five previous seasons, the Colts have been just where they are now, a team with double-digit wins tuning up and getting healthy for a playoff run. Also in those five previous seasons, the Colts’ record against the spread is remarkably similar in their final two regular season games, that being 0-2 ATS every single year! That puts Dungy and his Colts on an 0-10 ATS run in the final two games of the season heading into their game against Houston on Sunday, a trend that I fully expect to continue.
Dungy has stated that he won’t be resting his starters this week. That most assuredly doesn’t mean that Indy is going to have a full team of starters in the game on either side of the football when the point spread outcome is likely to be determined in the fourth quarter. While Dungy has said that he won’t be resting healthy starters, he’s also said that with the Colts locked into the two seed in the AFC, the myriad of banged up and injured Colts are not likely to see much playing time here. That list of banged up players is remarkably long, including defensive end Robert Mathis, defensive tackle Raheem Brock, offensive tackle Ryan Diem, cornerback Antoine Bethea, and many, many others. They’ll join Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney and many others on the sidelines for this game, and should the Colts take a solid early lead, don’t be surprised to see Peyton Manning sit in favor of Jim Sorgi in the second half. Indy will not be playing with full intensity this week.
That most assuredly is not the case for the Houston Texans. Gary Kubiak’s squad is sitting at .500 in the toughest division in football, with a chance to earn the first winning record in the six year existence of the franchise. Yes, Houston was eliminated from playoff contention last week, but all signs point towards a concerted effort in Indy on Sunday.
With the Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson passing tandem making big plays every week, and with Ron Dayne continuing to grind out tough yards on the ground, look for the Texans to keep this one close throughout, with a chance at the outright upset.
Free Pick: Texans +7