Weather forecasts in Pittsburgh are driving this total down and making the Over a value play. Make your play on the Over Sunday afternoon when the Steelers host the Jaguars.
Very quietly under the radar, the Jacksonville Jaguars have become one of the NFL’s strongest Over teams. The Jags have gone over the total in each of their last seven games, producing a combined score of at least 41 points each time.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Jacksonville’s offense has become a well oiled machine, putting up 24+ in each of those last seven games. Quarterback David Garrard has only thrown one interception all year. And Jacksonville’s strong running game, led by the duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, ensures that when they reach the red zone, they score touchdowns. The Jags have big play potential from their running game as well as their passing game, and let’s not forget to mention the defensive touchdown that Jacksonville scored last week – this team finds ways to reach the end zone.
Pittsburgh has gone under the total in each of their last two home games, in large part due to the deplorable conditions at Heinz Field in foul weather. But prior to those two weather related Unders, the Steelers at home had been the single strongest Over play in the entire NFL over the past three seasons, 17-3-1 to the Over since the start of the 2005 campaign.
Pittsburgh, like Jacksonville, has extraordinary balance on offense leading to great red zone efficiency. And, while the Steelers have allowed fewer points than any defense in the league this year, let’s not forget the litany of weak offenses that they’ve faced. The last three strong offensive teams that Pittsburgh has faced (Denver, Cleveland and New England), each put up four touchdowns or more against this defense.
As this total plummets south due to the snowy conditions expected in Pittsburgh on Sunday, savvy bettors are waiting until close to kickoff to bet it the other way. Take the Over.
Free Pick: Jaguars-Steelers Over 36 (-110)