Jets QB Mark Sanchez played suberbly last Sunday, completing
19-of-27 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns. But, that was against the Buffalo Bills. Do we have enough faith in him and the Jets to make them one of our NFL picks this coming Sunday?
NFL odds makers have installed the Steelers -6 home favorites. The total has dropped slightly to 41.5.
The simulator shows a high
probability that the Steelers will win this game by seven or more points. The
simulator shows further projections that the Jets will score fewer than 21
points and that their defense will allow 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. In
games, the Jets are 16-31 ATS when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play
since 1992 and are 1-5 ATS when they score between 15 and 21 points over the
past three seasons.
On the Steeler side of the ledger, the simulator shows that they will outgain the Jets by 1.0 to 1.5 yards per
play in this game. In past games where they have achieved this positive
offensive differential, the Steelers are 21-8 ATS since 1992.
Here are two systems with the
first one working in favor of the Steelers and the second working against the
Jets. Both are equally valid and serve only to support the simulator 10*
grading on the Steelers.
This system has produced a record
of 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 1983. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and was a good team last season, having outscored opponents by four or more
points per game, and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were
scored. This system has not lost in more than five season sporting a perfect
7-0 ATS record.
The second system has produced a
48-21 ATS record for 70% winners since 2006. Play against dogs or pick-em lines
with a team that is off a win by 10 or more points and facing an opponent after
a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
The trench warfare will be won by
the Steelers. I believe that the size and physicality of the Steelers
front seven will dominate and disrupt the Jets offensive line. Let’s not forget
that the Jets offensive line had a big day against Buffalo, but that previous to
this, they had allowed 22 sacks in the preseason. The Steelers defensive front will
get up field and force Sanchez into quick throws and not allow him time to see
the field and get the ball to the correct receiver.
Last week, Sanchez, was given ample
time to survey the field and was hardly under pressure throughout the game. He
is a very good quarterback when given the time to execute the play and does
have a good pocket awareness, allowing him to extend the play, too.
I expect offensive coordinator, Tony Sparano, to implement some pocket movements with Sanchez sliding right in order
to keep the Steeler defensive front from using twists and stunts in obvious
passing situations. This serves to spread the defense, but the Steelers are
excellent to react to any sort of rollout and are extremely good at perimeter
Pick: Steelers could win this by 20