Rumors continue to swirl about Tom Brady's leg injury. With that in mind, this is too many points for the New England Patriots to lay in their opener against the Kansas City Chiefs.
This one is real simple. New England closed out the regular season last year with a 1-5 ATS mark, favored by double digits in every single game. Their only pointspread cover during that span came against a Steelers team that was talking trash all week, giving the Patriots that extra motivation that they needed.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]In the playoffs, New England went 0-3 ATS, all as double-digit favorites. In the preseason, the Pats went 0-4 ATS, failing to sniff a pointspread cover in any of their four games. We’re talking about a team that is vastly overvalued by the betting marketplace, in the midst of a 1-12 ATS slide; 1-8 as double digit chalk.
Tom Brady didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and he didn’t even rejoin practice until Wednesday. There are rumors swirling that Brady’s injury is far more serious than the Pats have indicated – potentially a fractured leg. His injury riddled offensive line is suspect at best. Key third down back Kevin Faulk is suspended, tight end Ben Watson has a bad knee and Donte Stallworth will be catching passes in Cleveland this year. This is not the same explosive offense that we saw last year. And with question marks all over their secondary, the backdoor should be wide open for Kansas City if the Pats somehow manage to pull away with a big lead.
The Chiefs might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but let’s not forget head coach Herm Edwards' penchant for playing conservative football, keeping the games close. In Edwards' two seasons as the Kansas City head honcho, 13 of their 19 losses have come by 11 points or less. Look for that trend to continue here – the Pats have no business laying points in this range to even the weakest of foes here in Week 1. Take the Chiefs.
Free Pick: Chiefs +16 (-110)