The Dolphins grade out as slight favorites in this home contest vs. the Steelers, so getting three points at home is great value. Also, must win teams have struggled late in the season.
The Miami Dolphins are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but most people see the Dolphins as out while they know that the Pittsburgh Steelers must win this game.
That could be why the line is off in this game. Miami is actually slightly better than an average team, as they've faced a schedule that is 2.8 points tougher than average and have been out-gained by just 3.4 yards per game and out-scored by 1.6 points (making them 1.2 points better than average based on compensated points).
I'll consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more
Miami 25, Pittsburgh 22
NFL Free Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110)
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents by 2.5 points per game while playing a schedule that is 1.1 points easier than average, which would make the Steelers 1.4 points better than average on a simple compensated points basis. Based on compensated points ratings (Pittsburgh just 0.2 points better in that regard) the Dolphins should be favored by 2½ points at home.
My math model is way more complicated than that and I actually favor Miami by 1½ points. My other model also favors Miami by 1½ points, so getting three points at home is clearly good line value. It's pretty clear that the sportsbooks and the public are factoring in Pittsburgh's need to win this game, but needing to win and being able to win are different things. After all, if Pittsburgh could win whenever they needed to then they wouldn't be in this must win situation to begin with.
Must win teams are actually only 50-83-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season when facing a team out of playoff contention and teams with playoff incentive haven't been performing well this year either (New York Giants against Carolina, Minnesota and New Orleans both playing with incentive to get home field advantage and both losing consecutive games to losing teams).
That 50-83-4 ATS trend doesn't officially apply since Miami isn't mathematically out of the playoffs, but the idea behind that angle is in play here, as Pittsburgh is favored because of the must win situation being factored into the line, which the odds makers do because they know that Joe Gambler likes betting on must win teams against losing teams.
Pittsburgh also applies to a 2-20-1 ATS late season situation that plays against teams that are one game over .500 (i.e. teams likely still fighting for the playoffs), so history is not on the Steelers side either. Miami is now just 1-8 ATS as a favorite, but the Dolphins are 12-9 straight up and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog or pick, including 4-2 straight up and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 such games.
Even though the line value and situation favor the Dolphins here, I am a bit concerned about Ben Roethlisberger going against a vulnerable Miami secondary that has not been able to stop a good quarterback since limiting Drew Brees to 6.4 yards per pass play in Week 7. My math model projects Roethlisberger to average a very good 7.4 yards per pass play but Miami has allowed 8 yards per pass play or more in their last four games against better than average quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh would have to average 9.0 yards per pass play to merit being a three-point road favorite here, which is extreme, so the value is still on Miami, even if Roethlisberger has a great game.
© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.