Two old black-&-blue rivals meet in the Windy City Sunday, and if they can avoid special team mistakes the Minnesota Vikings should be able to cover the Chicago Bears.
Minnesota is a better than average team from the line of scrimmage, but their special teams are the worst in the NFL and could cost them in this game against Devin Hester and the Chicago Bears.
The Vikings rate at just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Gus Frerotte at quarterback and they are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. However, the Vikings have allowed a ridiculous 18 yards per punt return and 3 of those punts have been returned for touchdowns. That’s not a good omen going into a game kicking the ball to Hester (if they choose to kick it to him).
Chicago’s season numbers are nearly identical to those of Minnesota, as the Bears have been 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. However, the loss of starting CB Nathan Vasher a few weeks ago has hurt the secondary and the other starting CB Charles Tillman injured his shoulder in the second quarter of last week’s loss to Atlanta. Backup CB Trumaine McBride and safety Danieal Manning also were injured in that game and Matt Ryan average over 10 yards per pass play. Vasher and Tillman are both listed as questionable and the Bears would be worse than average against the pass without them (and about average if one of them played), so the Vikings would have a chance to move the ball through the air.
My math model projects Minnesota with a 4.8 yppl to 4.6 yppl advantage in this game if Chicago has one of their two starting cornerbacks in the game and Minnesota should win if their special teams don’t hurt them. However, that is not likely and I’ll call for a narrow Bear’s victory and a Vikings’ spread win on the basis of a 227-112-9 ATS statistical indicator that applies to Minnesota. Unfortunately, that angle is just 11-11-2 ATS if the other team is a division rival with revenge, which is the case here. I’ll still lean with the Vikings and hope Hester doesn’t take back a kick for a touchdown.
Prediction: Chicago-19 Minnesota-18
Free Pick: Vikings +3½ (-105)
© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.