The New England defense is just a shell of what it was in recent year, and Mark Sanchez and the Jets running game should continue to flourish today. The Jets defense is also improved.
The New York Jets looked strong on both sides of the ball last week in their easy win over the Houston Texans, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez continues to look like a seasoned vet in completing 18 of 31 passes for 8.8 yards per pass play (he averaged 8.5 yppp in the pre season).
New Englan Patriots' coach Bill Belichick will try to come up with a scheme to confuse the youngster, but he doesn't appear to have the players to implement his defensive ideas like he's had in past years. I rated the Patriots' defense as worse than average heading into this season and allowing 5.8 yards per play to what had been a struggling Bills' offense certainly doesn't change my outlook on that unit.
Sanchez should do fine and the Jets' good rush attack should rack up plenty of yards against a sub-par Patriots' run defense that figures to struggle without Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi. Tom Brady wasn't as sharp as usual last week, but he got better as the game progressed and should play at his normal high level this week.
However, the Jets have a very good defense that shut down a very good Houston Texans' pass attack last week. My ratings prior to last week would have favored the Patriots by just 2 points and now they favor the Jets by 1.
New York applies to a very good 100-36-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 78-29-2 ATS home underdog angle, but I'll pass on making this a Best Bet, given New England's 55-23-3 ATS mark in all games since 2003 when not favored by nine points or more, including 19-4-1 ATS in division games.
NY Jets 23, New England 22
Free Pick: Jets +3½ (-110)
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