Oddsmakers know bettors love to play teams in must-win situations this time of year, and that's why this line is too high for Tennessee to cover Sunday vs. the New York Jets.
The Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games and should be 5-1 ATS (they gave up a spread-covering TD to Cleveland when the Browns were trying to run out the clock) in those games.
Tennessee is in a must-win situation this week, but that’s why the line is so high. The oddsmakers know that amateurs like to bet on teams in must-win situations so they adjust the line accordingly. However, teams in must-win sistuations are only 48-75-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
Tennessee hasn’t been able to stop the run since run-stuffing DT Albert Haynesworth injured his hamstring. Haynesworth missed a few games and then came back but he hasn’t been the same and may not play this week. Tennessee was 0.6 ypr better than average defending the run in their first eight games but the Titans have allowed 4.8 ypr in their last 6 games to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team.
The Jets have actually been the better team over the last six weeks and my math model favors Tennessee by only 3½ points. I like the Jets. Final Score: Tennessee-21, New York-17
Free Pick: Jets +8½ (-120)
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