Can the Patriots run away with the AFC Championship once again?
It is hard to believe
but baseball is at its midway point and NFL training camps will be open for
business shortly. Let's get a jump start
on the current NFL odds in the AFC.
New England Patriots - (+310)
And why
shouldn't the Super Bowl runner ups be favored to win the conference? They have most of the pieces in place from
last season's championship run and certainly have more depth at wide receiver. The Pats have augmented their receiving corps
with the sole purpose of stretching the field. They have Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez who are expert at catching
Brady's flares but their inability to strike downtown was exposed in the Super
Bowl when the Giants locked up the box on 3rd down and dared Brady to
go long. He couldn't because his
receivers were unable to gain separation down the sidelines.
This season
the Patriots have released Ochocinco who was seemingly lost in Belichick's game
plan and added big free agent prize Brandon Lloyd as well as Jabar Gaffney,
Donte Stallworth as they welcome back Wes Welker (currently under the franchise
tag) and Deion Branch. Certainly an upgrade over last season and they have
drafted a pair of 1st round defensive players in Chandler Jones and
Dont'a Hightower who could make an immediate impact by rushing the quarterback
and taking the pressure off a secondary that was continually torched last
season.
Houston Texans +550
If repeating
as AFC South champions is not a cakewalk for the Texans then I fear these odds
of winning the AFC are way out of whack. The Texans have the luxury of playing in a woeful division as the
Jaguars and Colts should be at least four notches in the win column with the
only divisional test coming from the Titans.
If
quarterback Matt Schaub returns in good health then the Texans are once again
loaded with the best running back in the league Arian Foster at the ready to
chew up ground and the freakishly athletic Andre Johnson devastating
secondaries all across the league. However, the defense did take a hit with the departures of Mario
Williams and to a lesser extent DeMeco Ryans. Nevertheless, the Texans should have an easy path to the postseason and
are a threat to win the AFC.
Denver Broncos +650
Should the
Broncos really be the third choice to win the conference? Yes they have Peyton Manning but which
version are they getting? He has not
thrown a pass in anger in over a year and he's a middle aged guy now. And it's not like he has an embarrassment of
riches at his disposal in terms of receivers. Outside of Demaryius Thomas, Manning is looking at short range
targets.
Defense is
good and they have an absolute stud in Von Miller while Elvis Dumervil will
bring the heat but Champ Bailey is another year older and there are some holes
to plug in the secondary and at linebacker. The Broncos not only have to crack heads with a talented but
underachieving Chargers squad but the Chiefs should be improved over last
season and the Raiders. If that's not
enough they will also meet the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Patriots, Saints, and
Ravens. I guess the NFL schedule makers
forgot to give them the Packers and the 49'ers. Brutal schedule and one which will leave them gasping down the
homestretch.
Baltimore Ravens +750
Always
tough, hardcore defensive stalwarts who bring a punishing brand of football
every time they take the field. Defensive All-Pros Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are getting a little long in
the tooth but they will be there, they always are but Terrell Suggs will be on
the sidelines still nursing an Achilles injury until at least December and
perhaps the entire season. But the
cornerback situation appears to be rock solid with Ladarius Webb signing a big
money 5-year extension after a stellar season that saw him total 5 picks and 67
tackles.
Offensively
Joe Flacco is the man executing the plan with Ray Rice as the undisputed rock
star in the backfield. Anquan Bolden and
Torrey Smith are proven commodities as Flacco's choice targets but the rest of
the receiving corps is a question mark. Nonetheless
the versatile Ray Rice is like having another receiver but with his contract
situation still tenuous as of this writing it could be caveat emptor if you are
willing to back these Ravens.
Pittsburgh Steelers +800
The
Steelers, like their AFC North nemesis the Baltimore Ravens, have a terrific
defense but are fairly one dimensional on the offensive side of the ball with
the injury prone Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. The rushing attack won't be helped by
designating leading ball carrier Rashard Mendenhall on the Physically Unable to
Perform list but that's exactly what will happen if he cannot rehab his ACL
injury from last season in time for the opener. If that is the case then Mendenhall would not be able to suit up until
at least Week 6.
The Steelers
are a dangerous team but they appear to have a penchant for ailing at all the
wrong times. If I am going to choose
between the Ravens and the Steelers, I say Baltimore will win the division and
perhaps capture an all important first round bye which leaves the Steelers on
the road throughout. Not a place you
want your team to be if you're backing them to win the conference.
San Diego Chargers +1000
Norv Turner
beat the odds and somehow remained with the Chargers who have been the most
disappointing team in the NFL two years running. An AFC West division crown is the only result
that will allow Turner to continue in his current capacity, and why shouldn't they finally live up to
their vast potential? Norv Turner of
course!
I am not
sure if I am kidding when I say that because it is unfathomable that the
Chargers have stumbled so badly over the last few years. But one thing we do know, Norv Turner did not
throw a series of confounding interceptions throughout the season. That distinction belongs to Phillip Rivers
who is a top tier quarterback to be sure but he certainly had his share of
agonizing moments last season.
The Chargers
welcome a new wide receiver in Robert Meacham, formerly of the Saints, and will
look to Ryan Mathews on the ground and Antonio Gates as a key member of San
Diego's air force. For my money, 10-1 is
not a bad price to win the AFC title, for a team that has an excellent chance
of being crowned the AFC West champs.
New York Jets +1200
The Big Apple
Circus has moved to East Rutherford, New Jersey and they have a ringmaster by
the name of Sexxy Rexxy. Some may not
like the Jets, but they are certainly entertaining. This offseason was a wild one. The public outcry was to get rid of incumbent
starting quarterback Mark Sanchez and all the Jets brass did was sign him to an
extension. That made Sanchez feel warm
and fuzzy until a few days later when the Jets fractured his fragile ego by
signing the polarizing force that is Tim Tebow.
Is Tebow a
backup in case Sanchez gets injured or will the Jets be taking the quarterback
by committee approach? Perhaps it is
something in between but whatever it is, it better work because the New York
media will be critiquing every pass and scrutinizing every move the Jets
make. Nothing like a good old fashioned
quarterback controversy to sell newspapers.
Gang Green
was 8-8 last season and the border war with their New England neighbors will
continue. Do they have the arsenal to
dethrone the Patriots from their lofty perch high atop the AFC East? Not likely but with Rex Ryan, you just never
know.
The Rest of the Pack
Cincinnati Bengals +1600
Miami Dolphins +1800
Kansas City Chiefs +2500
Tennessee Titans +2500
Buffalo Bills +2800
Oakland Raiders +3000
Jacksonville Jaguars +6850
Indianapolis Colts +6850
Cleveland
Browns +7000