NFL odds makers have had season win totals listed for quite a while now, but is there any new value showing? Join us as we take a look at the AFC team win totals and decide if the odd makers have left us anything worth jumping on.
We’ve already identified three value picks in the NFC, so now it’s time to turn our attention
towards the AFC season win totals.
Kansas City Chiefs
2012 Offseason: You can forget
about last year because things have been looking up for the Kansas City Chiefs ever since. Essentially it's been an offseason of quality
compliments. They brought in Winston at
tackle and drafted Allen at guard to boost the line. Hillis will be a nice change of pace from
Charles and Boss will compliment Moeaki. 3rd round pick Devon Wylie could be a sneaky addition in the slot and/or
return game and could see opportunities with all the attention on Bowe.
Everything is looking great on offense right? Well questions remain at center and QB --
which are not the positions you want to be worrying about in September.
On defense, things are looking great--especially if Poe can shake off
the draft day criticism. Having a coach
like Crennel should help the transition. Routt was brought in to replace Carr and should be fine opposite
Flowers. Berry is back and will be
giving them a serious game-changer at the back. He's going to have fun playing behind the likes of Hali and Houston.
Looking ahead: I don't really
care if Matt Cassel was booed at a charity softball game because I'm genuinely
excited to see this team play in week 1. Any team that adds guys like Moeaki, Charles, and Berry to the roster is
bound to have a bounce-back year. The
key offensive rankings should improve in all categories (passing, rushing, red
zone, third down percentage, points from long drives etc). They also have the 5th easiest schedule in
Oakland Raiders UNDER 7
Offseason: Not only does Carson Palmer hurt the Oakland Raiders on the football field, but
he hurts them off of it as well. The draft wasn't anything to write home
about and they lost Routt, Bush, and Boss. They picked up....no one worth
noting. Oh wait, they got Matt Leinart. Stop the press.
To be fair, they do have promise on the O-line, McFadden is a stud, and keeping
Branch was smart. The defensive line has a chance to be very good and Lechler
and Janikowski remain their headliners.
Looking ahead: Who knows? If they can be above-average on the O
and D lines (which should happen on paper) and Allen can improve the defense
just a little bit...then they could have some surprising success. The more likely scenario is that their
defense will continue to leak oil, Palmer will throw key interceptions at the
worst possible time, and McFadden gets banged up.
are simply too many "ifs" to expect much from the Silver and Black
this year. If Palmer finishes with a healthy turnover ratio Al Davis
might turnover in his grave. Bush is not there to handcuff the running
formula in Oakland is pretty simple--take a lot of penalties, win some games
you're not supposed to, fire all your coaches and start over next year. Playing in a tough division, Oakland winds up with a tough schedule as
well. Their win total opened at 7 and
some money has come in on the under. I expect that trend to continue.
Houston Texans OVER
2012 Offseason: The primary
problem for the Houston Texans is the loss of Mario Williams, but the pain didn't end there.
Losing Winston at tackle was a big blow, and losing Brisiel at guard didn't
help either. This opens up key camp battles on the line. There are other big
questions on special teams, too. What is going on in the return game and how
will a rookie kicker work out? Shipping out Ryans at linebacker was as much a
scheme decision as it was a cost-saving move. Dreessen and Vickers were under-the-radar cogs of a well-oiled machine.
The good news? Their stars will enter the year healthy. They added an
explosive pass rusher in Mercilus on day 1 of the draft. WR DeVier Posey could
be a surprise contributor on offense. And best of all, they have continuity in
all the right places.
Looking ahead: Houston open with
a season win total of 10 and thus far we've seen some action on the over. I agree with this since I think this team
will survive the offseason losses and once again be a serious playoff contender.
There is simply too much balance on both sides of the ball to ignore
and they have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league. In the 19 statistical categories I look at,
they were only below average in 2 last year--passing offense and red zone
efficiency. That won't happen with a
healthy trio of Schaub, Foster, and Johnson. If I was the NFL odds maker pricing this team, I would have the win total at 11 at the