NFL Odds: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills were off to a hot start last season, but they quickly cooled off thanks to a seven game losing streak. How will the Bills approach this year's season, and can they make it into the post season?

 

 

The Buffalo Bills commence training camp on July 25^th and you can bet one thing, the team is ecstatic to be in their facility at St. John Fisher College. Here are the comments from team CEO Russ Brandon, "We are excited to be here. As a reminder, as many of you know, we were able to come together on a long-term extension with St. John Fisher a year ago. The reason we picked this location (new grass field) to have you all out today is because this is one of the elements of our arrangement with Fisher. With having the new grass field—which is outstanding.

Want to thank St. John Fisher, most notably President Bain for all of his efforts and all that Fisher has done for us. We have the finest summer home in the National Football League. It is because of the efforts of Dr. Bain, the senior staff and all of the faculty here at St. John Fisher. It is just a tremendous place to get ready for the season. We are excited to be back. It is sort of amazing that it is here. But we are excited to be here."

 "We have the finest summer home in the National Football League. It is just a tremendous place to get ready for the season. We are excited to be back.”

 

 

As training camp looms, there are several unanswered questions as the Bills look to compete in a division dominated by the Patriots. The Bills will switch to a 4-3 defense after having little success stopping the run in the 3-4. New defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt has a few new toys to work with in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. The question is will their pass rush improve and will they be able to stop the run? If these two huge free agent splashes don't spell success, then the Bills are doomed. 

The Bills committed another share of their financial resources to wide receiver and number one target Stevie Johnson by signing him to a new contract and keeping him in a Buffalo uniform. But who will the number two guy be? According to incumbent starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, it does not really matter.

"It's not like we've got two receivers on the field a lot. Usually we've got three or four receivers on the field. You want to always be able to name a No. 2 guy, but really it's going to be by committee for us - only because we're rarely in the two wide receiver sets." 

That may be, but the big question is, who else besides Johnson is a viable go-to guy? The Bills are hoping, and secretly so is Fitzpatrick, that someone emerges in training camp.

 

 

The Bills look to be a vastly improved team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They have added the biggest free agent prize (aside from Peyton Manning) in Mario Williams and plundered an AFC East rival, the New England Patriots, roster of their top sacking defensive lineman in Mark Anderson. 

Buffalo will take to the highway and play their intrastate rivals the New York Jets on opening day. I believe the Bills will be a surprise contender this season, and there is no better place to start building a successful season than on opening day. Look for the Bills to run on the Jets and perhaps take an early lead that will not give up. 

Play the Bills +4.

 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to craft a lease extension with the board members of Erie County if they want to remain in Buffalo. The current lease expires in July of 2013 and the tipping point in negotiations is just how much of the financial burden will each party shoulder for the extensive renovations needed at the 40-year-old stadium. 

The Bills have already spent half a million on an architectural firm designed to specify the length and breadth of the renovations as well as revenue enhancing features which will make the experience of attending a Bills’ game that much more enjoyable for their patrons. 

The project is slated to cost approximately $200-$220 million dollars which will involve funding not only from the county but also the state of New York. The rehab is projected to take three years to complete with the Bills ponying up as much as $37 million with the league matching that figure. 

Erie County official Mark Poloncarz offered, "(The Bills) want more (money) than I think they know they're going to get. But but (repeated word) we're not going to give away the store to keep the team here. We're going to ensure that this team is economically viable and is kept here for many years. But it's my goal that the Bills contribute to part of the construction costs associated with the stadium."

 

 

Marcellus Darius was the Bills' sack leader with 5.5 last season, which is exactly why Bills' management went out of their way to bring sack masters Mario Williams and Mark Anderson into the fold during the offseason. Williams was one of the most coveted free agents after the 2011 season concluded, and the Bills outbid everyone for his services. Additionally, they plucked Mark Anderson from AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots, to help Williams wreak havoc on opposing backfields. Anderson was a pleasant surprise for the Pats, recording 10 sacks, which made him an attractive free agent signing as well. 

Williams and Anderson were teammates in Houston for one season, so they have a bit of camaraderie as well as some friendly competition brewing between them. Mario Williams obviously wants everyone to know he's the alpha male on this defensive line as evidenced by this bone he tossed to the press, "Well, when you're only 210 pounds, you can't really do it like guys like me do," the 6'6", 290-pound Williams joked about Anderson's pass rushing moves. "Thumbs up to Mark. It's tough for him. He's a little dude. It works. It definitely worked from last year."

The 6'4" 255 pound Anderson mulled Williams statement and responded, "We will see when it is all said and done. It is going to be a fun competition, and we are both competitive guys. We are just going to feed off of each other and the best man will win."

We are quite certain the Bills coaching staff doesn't care who hits the quarterback as long as the pass rush is vastly improved over last season. The benchmark for creating chaos in the trenches and decimating quarterbacks is undeniably Bills Hall of Famer Bruce Smith, who amassed 171 sacks in his career with Buffalo making him the all-time leader in franchise history as well as the NFL's sack leader in which he totaled 200 after spending the last three years of his illustrious career with the Redskins. The eight-time first team All-Pro had an incredible 19 sacks during the 1990 campaign, but I am certain the Bills would be more than pleased if Williams and Anderson could each get half that number this season.

 

 

Steve Johnson is happy to be healthy again after a season which saw the Bill's top target slowed by a groin injury that plagued him throughout last season. What surprised many is the timing of his surgery. He did not get it attended to until April, well past the end of the season and uncomfortably close to the beginning of this one. Groins don't magically heal overnight and one of the best remedies is rest.

Johnson participated in the Bills minicamp and stated that he waited to get the surgery because he felt it would heal naturally, without the need for a surgeon's scalpel. Despite the lingering groin injury, Johnson did not miss any games in 2011 and caught 76 passes for over a thousand yards and found the endzone seven times. Not bad for a guy who said he felt a stinging pain after each sharp cut when running routes last season.

Johnson addressed the media after a workout last week and stated, "Cutting in and coming to the right, it felt like it was heavy. It is just a mental thing. I did not feel any sharp pain like I did all last year. I feel like I am good so tomorrow, hopefully, I will be able to go out there and just focus on plays, who is lined up across from me, the defense and all that other stuff. Today was more of, if I cut right here will it pop, or what is going to happen next? If I get a few more plays I will be good." 

 

 

The Bills are committed to finding a way, any way, to slow down the juggernaut of prolific offenses in the NFL, particularly one which resides in the AFC East, the New England Patriots. To that end they decided upon the best defensive back in the draft when they tapped Stephen Gilmore of South Carolina with their 1^st round pick (10^th overall) to bolster a secondary that was mediocre at best.

That mediocrity was partially due to injuries suffered by a key man over the last few seasons. Terrence McGee was a formidable force when healthy but staying on the field has been a struggle. He is tied for the franchise record with seven special teams/defensive touchdowns as he has returned five kickoffs for touchdowns as well as a fumble and an interception. Yet, he has only played 15 games over the past two years and is now dealing with a ligament tear he sustained last season.

McGee has taken an all or nothing approach this season. He has given back $5.1 million in guaranteed money to restructure his contract. McGee believes it was the right thing to do noting, “These past three years I’ve been hurt, but still getting all my money.”

 

 

Quarterbacks coach David Lee was pleased with what he saw out of last season’s starter Ryan Fitzpatrick during the most recent OTA’s (Organized Team Activities).

“I didn’t anticipate him hitting the back shoulder (throw) until the middle of camp and he just nailed that one,” said Lee following last week’s practice. “He hit the go route, which bothered him last year especially to his left. I’m really pleased with how quickly he’s taken to it, but it’s not muscle memory yet because we haven’t done it long enough. He’s improving, but he’s not yet where he’s going to be.”

Backup QB Tyler Thigpen is sitting out due to a small abdominal tear (sounds painful) and his status is in doubt as to when he will return to the field. Team officials don’t believe it will be a lengthy absence but abdominal strains and particularly tears can be lingering issues that are difficult to shake without a total and extended shutdown.

Defensive tackle and former LSU product Kyle Williams is back to live action after suffering an Achilles injury last season that shelved him after Week 9 loss to the Jets. Williams is progressing nicely and felt comfortable after Thursday and Friday’s OTA’s.

 

 

2011

Last season the Buffalo Bills started off like world beaters and were 3-0 after disposing of the New England Patriots and snapping a 15 game skid against their AFC East nemesis. It was a huge come from behind victory for a team that had toiled in futility and they did it by picking off Tom Brady four times en route to a 34-31 stunner in front of a frenzied Bills crowd. 

After Week 8 in the NFL season, they sat atop of their division tied with the Patriots and delivered a reason to believe for the Buffalo faithful. However, their prosperity would not continue as they dropped their next seven games to effectively dismiss any and all hopes for a postseason run. The defense could not get any pressure on the opposing quarterbacks as they ranked a dismal 29^th in sacks but interestingly enough, they ranked 6^th in the league in interceptions. 

The Bills had 30 million dollars in cap space to spend and they got busy quickly addressing their ineffective pass rush. Though they have been reluctant in the past to delve into the free agency market, this year was different and 2012 could be the year that a sea change in the AFC East landscape is in the offing.

Off season acquisitions

Bills' management didn’t waste any time and got their man in pass rushing menace Mario Williams as a free agent via the Houston Texans. The Buffalo brass was not deterred by Williams’ recent spate of injuries and eagerly added the former number one overall pick and NC State product to their roster in the form of a 6 year contract with $50 million in guaranteed money. 

The Bills then sought additional defensive line help by turning within their division and luring former Patriot Mark Anderson with a four year deal worth reportedly over 27 million. Anderson had a rebound year with the Patriots, recording 10 sacks and landing a healthy contract because of it. It’s a big step for the Bills to take as Anderson played less than half of the defensive snaps for the Pats. However, he is a multi-faceted player who can play the end or outside linebacker in the 3-4 scheme.

Perhaps as important but by no means as popular with the water cooler crowd in Buffalo were the re-signings of wide receiver Steve Johnson, tight end Scott Chandler, linebacker Kirk Morrison and aging kicker Rian Lindell. Second tier receivers Ruvell Martin and Derek Hagan were also re-signed by the team.

The Draft

Stephon Gilmore was universally lauded as the premier secondary man in the 2012 draft. He is projected to be an impact player which should bolster the already ball hawking secondary of the Bills. Buffalo does not have the luxury of selecting a player who will eventually bear fruit, they need an immediate starter and in Stephon Gilmore they may have very well found that guy.

In the 2^nd round of the NFL Draft the Bills chose an avalanche of a man in offensive tackle Cordy Glenn by way of the University of Georgia. Glenn affords Buffalo the luxury of an offensive lineman who can play guard or tackle and could immediately begin contributing.

The Bills third round pick was a bit curious as wide receiver T.J. Graham was plucked in the 3^rd round yet many analysts had forecasted him as a 7^th round selection. The Bills actually traded up a few spots to get him and sacrificed a 7^th rounder in trade. Graham is a speed merchant who will complement their receiving corps but his electrifying speed and agility may manifest more on the special teams squad. 

Rounding out the draft were linebackers Nigel Bradham (4^th round of FSU) and Tank Carder (5^th round of TCU), offensive linemen Zebrie Sanders (5^th round of FSU) and Mark Asper (6^th round of Oregon), cornerback Ron Brooks (4^th round of LSU) and finally kicker John Potter (7^th round of Western Michigan).

NFL odds makers are listing the Buffalo Bills at 50/1 to sin this year's Super Bowl.