NFL Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars

A stout defense and an elite running back did little to alter the disastrous 2011 season for Jacksonville. Will 2012 be any better?

 

 

Jacksonville's 1^st round selection and fifth overall Justin Blackmon just scored his first touchdown as a professional and he didn't even have to suit up.  Blackmon was arrested in June after blowing a .24 on the breathalyzer test, three times the legal limit but will serve no time and his NFL career can debut uninterrupted. 

The Jaguars have to hope that Blackmon will mature quickly and not take the path of a young, talented receiver with no direction and no scruples. Can you say Kenny Britt?! The Jags would love to see Blackmon mirror the 23-year-old Tennessee Titan in terms of on field talent but will cross their fingers that their potential superstar will be one and done with the police and stay injury free unlike Britt.

 

 

It's interesting that the fans who were lauding the Jags for signing Josh Scobee to a $14 million contract last Monday are the same people who moaned and groaned when the team reached way up high to pluck punter Bryan Anger as the 7^th pick in the 3^rd round.  Yes, one position is primarily offense and the other defense, but spending money and a relatively high draft pick on someone who can pin back the other team is a valuable weapon. 

The Jags have a solid defense, placing in the top ten in both passing and rushing yards allowed. Now, factor into that equation that their opponents may be starting from their 15 instead of their 25 yard line. The play calling becomes much more conservative, and the Jacksonville defense can be even more effective. Bryan Anger may be the least heralded new weapon for the Jaguars this season, but we will have to wait to see if his promise as an NFL punter is fulfilled.

 

 

The Jags have a problem. Their biggest asset, Maurice Jones-Drew, wants more money, but the Jaguars have not offered. He may sit out training camp and the impact could be devastating. Jacksonville's 1^st round pick, wide receiver extraordinaire Justin Blackmon, has already had a scrape with the law after being handed a big money contract.  Perhaps things will turn around and the Jaguars will have a wonderful season, but things are not looking all that great early on.

So, what does this have to do with their date on the road in Minnesota to open up the 2012 regular season?  Well it could have a great deal to do with it if MJD doesn't get what he wants and Blackmon can't get on track. 

NFL odds makers seem to think it may take the Jags a few weeks to get straight; in the meantime, we will play Minnesota -4 ½ at home over the Jags in Week 1 of the regular season.

 

The Jags have over $25 million in cap space to spend on anyone they deem worthy enough to help them win football games in the 2012 season. No other team can make that claim as most have far less at their disposal, but the Jaguars have plenty of dough, and kicker Josh Scobee would like them to share just enough of it to make him happy. 

Scobee is a nice weapon for Jacksonville to have on their roster. He's a very good kicker and has a booming leg which makes kickoff returns difficult even for the most gifted return man. Scobee wants what's coming to him and now that some of his peers like Matt Prater of the Broncos and Connor Barth of the Bucs have been signed, he's got his sights set on something in the neighborhood of a 4-year $13 million deal. Nice neighborhood!

 

Nathan Enderle, the Bears 5^th round selection out of Idaho, will not be suiting up at Soldier Field this season but he may have a crack at holding the clipboard for the Jags.  Enderle was waived by Chicago and scooped up by Jacksonville but whether he sticks is another situation entirely. 

The starting role belongs to Blaine Gabbert with veteran Chad Henne hoping to unseat him but the third QB on the roster is in question, as is the very existence of that position.  Enderle was brought in to compete with Jordan Palmer for the spot but Jaguars GM Gene Smith told the Florida Times-Union, “When you look at the league, there are a number of teams that go with two now. But clearly, I would go with two or three.   And if I went with two, I would have one on the practice squad, so three either way.”

Clearly more questions than answers with that statement but it’s safe to say all but one of the four signal callers will have a job Jacksonville this season…one way or another.

 

 

The relationship between star running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Jaguars management is still icy, as the team expressed they have no intention of negotiating a new contract with a player they inked to a contract extension in 2009. Jones is 27-years-old and there is more than enough statistical evidence that running backs in the NFL have a rather short lifespan and the lucky ones play in peak form until they are twenty-nine...the lucky ones.

Consider for a moment the recently retired Ladainian Tomlinson, one of the very greatest running backs of all time. By the time LT was 30, his beloved San Diego Chargers cut him loose as though he were a walk on free agent who simply couldn't cut it with the big boys. Maurice Jones-Drew will be closing in on thirty by the time he is set to negotiate his next contract.

MJD stands to make $4.45 million this season and $4.95 million next but those will most likely be the last of his peak years. If he runs true to form, he should be one of the elite tailbacks when his contract expires and could certainly demand a sharp increase. But teams pay players for what they are going to do not what they already did. Jones-Drew knows this, or at least his agent does, and so do the Jacksonville Jaguars. It will be high stakes brinksmanship between the two parties but if MJD pushes this too far and stages a holdout ala Chris Johnson from last year, just maybe the Jags take a second look and surmise that their best season was 8-8 with Jones-Drew leading the ground attack. Last season they were 5-11 even though MJD led the league in rushing and accounted for almost half of the Jaguars offensive yardage.

If the schism grows wider between MJD and the Jaguars front office then perhaps they look to deal the face of their franchise and know that they probably got the very best years out of him while getting rewarded handsomely from another team who will bow to his financial demands and lavish him with a contract that will pay him among the league leaders. Though the fans will no doubt grouse if the Jags think big picture and pull the trigger on a deal that would return a plethora of high draft picks for years to come, it could very well be the very best remedy for a franchise that has been ailing for too long.

 

 

Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the elite running backs in the NFL and he wants to be paid like one despite having two years left on a 5 year pact.  He is scheduled to make $4.45 million this year and $4.95 million next season.  After a career year last season which saw him chew up the ground to the tune of over 1600 yards, Jones-Drew is currently the eighth highest paid running back but clearly is sending a message to the Jaguars brass that it isn’t enough by not attending the first day of the team’s mandatory minicamp.

General Manager Gene Smith has let it be known the Jaguars will not negotiate with their star player and head coach Mike Mularkey could fine Jones-Drew $60,000 if he misses the entire three days of minicamp.  This has all the trappings of what could be a lengthy holdout.  Stay tuned Jags fans.

 

 

Highly rated prospect and the Jaguars 1^st round draft pick Justin Blackmon (5^th overall) was pulled over and charged with a DUI on Sunday night (June 3^rd) at 3:00 in the morning. It certainly has to give the Jaguars cause for pause because they are ready to sign him to a big money contract, worth approximately $20 million. But how will they feel allocating all that money to a young guy who has not even played a down in the NFL and already has two DUI's under his belt?

Blackmon was first charged in 2010 when he was driving a car that had alcohol in it and was under the legal drinking age. Although he claimed he had nothing to drink he was nevertheless charged because he was a minor in possession while driving a vehicle.

While the Jaguars are committed to signing him, they would be wise to reduce the amount of guaranteed money. Blackmon will be placed in the NFL's substance abuse program and randomly tested if this latest charge holds up. If Blackmon is already a risk, can you imagine how much riskier he will be with millions in the bank?

 

 

Will the offense be offensive?

Mike Mularkey was a rather surprising choice to supplant the deposed Jack Del Rio as head coach of the Jags. Mularkey is not a household name but the former offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons may be the nuts and bolts kind of guy the Jaguars need to make them competitive again. Though he is an offensive minded coach by trade he will not attempt to do it all by himself. He has entrusted the offensive play calling to Brad Bratkowski, his colleague in Atlanta last season where Bratkowski served as the Falcons quarterback coach.

Certainly anything will be an improvement over last season when the Jags ranked dead last in passing yards yet posted a solid 12^th in rushing thanks to the prodigious talents of Maurice Jones Drew. Obviously the coaches would like to see Blaine Gabbert learn from his many mistakes in his rookie season. Oftentimes rookie QB's who get a baptism by fire, as Gabbert did last season, will either rebound with a little more wisdom and wagon full of determination or they will have a deer in the headlights look about them as they try to go about their business.

Time will tell but Gabbert looked every bit the rookie last season as he led in several dubious categories including most sacks (40), most fumbles by a quarterback (14), a 50.8% completion rate that was second worst in the NFL (for passers with at least 200 attempts) behind Tim Tebow. He had a miserable quarterback rating (65.4) and trailed all passers with a woeful 5.4 yards per attempt. Hopefully the offensive line will learn to pass block as well as they run block and make life a bit easier for young Mr. Gabbert.

The Jacksonville brass did go out and