NFL Odds: New England Patriots

Bill Belichick’s boys came up empty again against the New York Giants when it mattered most and must now address some of their concerns to keep them contending for a World Championship. Join my blog for all the latest news on The Pats.

 

 

Patriots owner Bob Kraft has always been the consummate class act and his respect around the league is unparalleled by both the fans of New England and his fellow owners. So, when a video leaked of him doing a little dance in front of a scantily clad actress that he's been palling around with recently, it was more than just a little embarrassing. 

But I say cut the guy some slack. His wife of many years, Myra Kraft, passed away last year and what is a guy with a billion dollar asset supposed to do, see if any of her 70-something widowed friends are looking for a little company, Bob Kraft style?  Hello no, it's time to chase a few foxes and get stupid as the rappers like to say. 

Mr. Kraft issued the obligatory apology...for what I'm not sure. He felt ridiculous because the media covered it and the fans didn't know what to make of it. He was caught having some fun but in an industry where images are cultivated very carefully, it caused some snide remarks which resulted in a bit of discomfort for the normally reserved Patriots' owner. Personally, for what this man has done for this franchise, he can chase as many skirts as he wants and act the fool whenever he pleases.  Just make sure the Pats keep winning and the fans will love you all the same.

 

 

The Tom and Bill show opens up for another season on the road against the Titans. Brady now has more weapons at his disposal - as if he needed more - with the addition of prized free agent Brandon Lloyd. The Patriots are hoping that their two first round picks, Chandler Jones and Don’t’a Hightower, will bolster a defense that was average at best in sacking the passer and inept at defending against the pass.

But the Titans are more inclined to keep the ball on the ground as Chris Johnson will have a full training camp under his belt, barring injury, and New England’s run stop unit will be tested. The irony is that the Titans were ranked a dismal 31^st in rushing but a surprising 12^th in passing. If their rushing attack is improved, which it most certainly should be assuming Johnson is in vintage form, then the Pats could be in for a long day.

Nevertheless, we believe the Patriots’ offense is explosive enough to put plenty of points on the board against a Titans’ team defense that was mediocre at best last season. Watch Brady and the boys exorcise the demons from last year’s Super Bowl and roll in Tennessee;. 

Pats -6 ½ is the pick.

 

 

Andre Carter, the 33-year-old defensive end, wants back in Boston, or more accurately Foxboro. Carter was a big contributor to the Patriots defense until he tore a quad muscle in Denver in Week 15.  According to those in the know, he is ahead of schedule medically and looks to take the field in time for the start of the regular season. He made $2.75 million last year and, after registering 10 sacks and getting a Pro-Bowl invitation, is now looking for a long term deal at a higher salary.

However, the Patriots are not eager to give a multi-year pact to a guy in his mid-30's and coming off of injury. It's a stalemate, but both sides agree on one thing, they would like to do business together again this season. Whether or not a compromise can be reached is still not clear, but the Patriots certainly need as much help as they can get to bolster a pass rush that was lacking at times last season and forced the secondary into chasing opposing receivers around the field.  Hopefully, both sides can reach a resolution quickly because the Patriots could use a veteran who is respected both on the field and in the locker room like Carter.

 

 

Bill Belichick has always been comfortable with players he knows. He may release them but is never reluctant to call them back if the need arises. It is all about what's best for the team and I cannot recall a time when a former Patriot, under Belichick's reign, has not warmed to the idea of rejoining the franchise.

And so the story goes that former Patriots running back Sammy Morris, released by Belichick during training camp last season, may be back for another stint as a New England Patriot.

When asked for a reaction Morris had this to say, "It’s definitely reciprocal. I’m still here. My family is here. My kids still go to school here, so it’s definitely reciprocal. I’ve been around a while, so I kind of just know the deal. Words are one thing, but all I can do is take care of my part. If something materializes, then I know I’ll be ready."

The Patriots may be looking for a veteran presence due to last season's starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis moving on to greener pastures (operative word being greener) as a Cincinnati Bengal. The Pats plan on starting a pair of 2011 draft picks in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to lead their rushing attack this season but an experienced player like Morris would be a welcome addition in the event the pair sputter.

 

 

Two key pieces of the Patriots offense are recovering from injuries, but both got medical clearance to play in a charity golf tournament over the weekend.  The recently signed tight end extraordinaire Rob Gronkowski and his fellow Pro Bowl teammate left guard Logan Mankins must be making serious progress if they were allowed to engage in a round of golf.  NFL teams take offseason activities very seriously, particularly when it concerns to crucial players like Gronkowski and Mankins. Both are expected to miss portions of training camp but will most likely be in uniform and ready to play for their season opener against Tennessee on September 9^th.

 

 

Bob Kraft is accustomed to players taking a home team discount for the opportunity to play on team that has contended every year for the past decade. Not every player has fallen in line and some like Logan Mankins have even made it personal. But such was not the case when the Patriots got proactive in signing superstar Rob Gronkowski to a record breaking $54 million, six year pact making this the richest contract for a tight end in history.

If Tom Brady is the face of the Patriots then Gronkowski is its heart. He’s a big rough, tough kid who levels linebackers when he catches the short flares but has enough speed and plenty of height to make covering him a nightmare for opposing secondaries.

Although his contract wasn’t up, it was a wise move, dare I say the only move that the Patriots could make because allowing him to venture into free agency a few years hence would be a huge gamble. The Gronk is now firmly ensconced as a New England Patriot but will they pull the trigger on the other talented tight end Aaron Hernandez? Pats fans will have to wait and see.

 

 

History making tight end Rob Gronkowski destroyed the record books last season with over 1300 receiving yards, 18 touchdowns and seven games in which he scored more than one. However, he has not always exercised the most discretion when off the field as evidenced by his romps with ladies of questionable pedigree. I’m not sure Mr. Kraft was thrilled to see one of his star players posing shirtless with a porn star, garbed in his Patriots jersey, and captured on Twitter for all his fans to see. The NFL is supremely guarded of their reputation and Robert Kraft is no exception. 

But in the days before Twitter, texting, sexting and email, this would have been the kind of tale that would be perfectly palatable as undocumented legend. It would be the kind of story men tell to each other in barrooms as the story gets bigger and more outrageous. Folklore is a wonderful thing but today nothing is left to the imagination. That’s why it is refreshing to see Gronkowski is undaunted and vowing to improve upon last season’s heroics. With a new stable of “stretch the field” receivers and subtle hints that a new and improved ground game is in the offing, it will be a tall task for Gronkowski to duplicate those numbers. But when you are 23 years and loaded with talent, nothing’s impossible.

 

 

One former Colts arrives in Foxboro and another is shown the gate. Joseph Addai, the first round pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2006, has signed a reported $1.3 million contract to compete in the Patriots backfield this season. He recorded a thousand plus yards rushing in his first two seasons but his last two campaigns have been injury plagued and unproductive. The Patriots are convinced Addai can at the very least fill the void by the apparent vacancy left by Kevin Faulk, who has served as a change of pace back, receiver coming out of the backfield and a was also a solid blocker. Addai is being called upon as a younger replacement to his LSU alumni Kevin Faulk on the field but it is doubtful he can fill Faulk’s leadership role off the field. 

We hardly knew you Tony Gonzalez. The former Colt receiver was shown the door after only three months as a Patriot. There is a logjam at wideout to be sure but it raised a few eyebrows when Gonzalez was deemed disposable by the Patriots coaching staff.

Perhaps even more of a surprise was the ticket out of town that Alfonzo Dennard received after being labeled the “steal of the draft” by some as the 7^th round selection of the Patriots. Character and legal issues have plagued the once highly touted defensive back and he will have to for a job as soon as his legal entanglements are over.

 

 

We all know the Patriots won't be using their 1^st rounder to draft a quarterback, after all they have Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. Oh yeah, that kid Brady too. But the Patriots will be looking to do what their offensively gifted contemporaries (i.e. Saints, Packers, Giants) need to do as well and that is shore up their pass rushing. The Patriots will reap the rewards from last year's trade with the Saints and get two picks in this year's 1^st round as they acquire the Saints spot at 27 and their own at 31. 

Drafting a defensive end or an outside linebacker who can play the edge appears to be the number one priority for Bill Belichick's crew. Names like Shea McClellin of Boise State, Nick Perry of USC, Chandler Jones (UFC Light Heavyweight king Jon Bones Jones' little brother) of Syracuse or even Andre Branch of Clemson are all possibilities at this spot.

Whichever position they choose to fill, outside linebacker or defensive end, they may very well draft the other position four picks later when they select the 31^st player in the draft. While some may argue that would be a bit of overkill, Bill Belichick is known for having an unconventional game plan both on and off the field. If the Patriots insist on pressuring the quarterback, I say why not draft an outside linebacker and a defensive end with your two first round picks?

But here is something to consider. The Patriots may need a big time cornerback even more than a pass rusher. Perhaps, now just hear me out, they trade up to take the best cornerback in the draft which would be Morris Claiborne of LSU, who is a virtual lock to go in the top ten of this year's draft. Just something to think about Pats fans.

 

 

Deep Threats

There are those who diminish Tom Terrific’s passing stats by claiming he only throws quick darts and that his yardage is ballooned by six yard passes which resemble thirty yard strikes on the stat sheet because Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski have the field awareness to make it so. Certainly it is a legitimate argument until you hearken back to 2007 when Brady launched bombs to Randy Moss and he in turn set the touchdown reception mark for a single season with twenty three. 

Last season, the Patriots boasted no such deep threat as Chad Ochocinco looked dazed and confused throughout the season, clearly overwhelmed by an offensive scheme that eluded him. Surprisingly, he did not blame his lack of productivity on what are normally the usual suspects, quarterback, offensive coordinator, head coach but instead went about his business twittering away and seemingly enjoying his new surroundings. He was actually an affable sort and not the primetime diva most thought he would be if things didn’t go his way. Therefore, it’s not altogether shocking that the Pats are going to give him a shot at redemption at a fraction of the cost. 

Thus, Ochocinco will be back at a bargain basement price and part of a team of reclamation projects that Belichick is so fond of at wide receiver. He will join the oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez from Indianapolis, Dante Stallworth who spent 2007 with the team and was suspended from the NFL in ’09 after a vehicular manslaughter plea, Deion Branch who is clearly not the player he was in his previous incarnation with the Pats and finally their prized free agent catch, Brandon Lloyd. 

Wes Welker will of course be back as he was slapped with the franchise tag and All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski and his erstwhile understudy Aaron Hernandez will be catching plenty of passes as well. If any of the newcomers can stretch the field, then deep strikes can once again become part of Brady’s impressive arsenal.

What else?

Rumors are that the Patriots may be trolling for versatile running back Matt Forte for something along the lines of a 2^nd and 4^th round draft pick to the Bears. Forte was not a happy camper when Michael Bush signed a four year $14 million payday with the Bears. However, it would seem a bit desperate for Belichick to do something that he is generally unwilling to do and that is trade draft picks. 

Though the Law Firm has taken his talents to Cincinnati the Patriots still have two high draft picks from last season's draft who are hopefully ready to handle the load. Shane Vereen (2^nd round) and Stevan Ridley (3^rd round) will definitely be joined by a veteran in case they stumble but Belichick will most likely opt for his typical low risk high reward kind of player. The Pats routinely salvage spare parts off the NFL scrap heap who somehow magically experience a career renaissance under the watchful eye of Bill Belichick and company.

The Odds

We can talk all we want about the offensive side of the ball but unless the Patriots shore up their defense then they may be in for another deep run only to fall short again. The secondary was abysmal as Eli Manning exploited them on 3^rd down throughout the Super Bowl. The defensive front can be propped up and the linebacking corps is a mixed bag with Jerod Mayo as the only standout but the secondary is woeful. Ras-I Dowling was plucked from the 2011 draft as the first pick in the 2^nd round but an early season hip injury sidelined him from action. Maybe he can help but there is no overstating how much of an overhaul this New England secondary needs.

The Patriots total is currently 11.5 at the best sportsbooks and the NFL odds to win the Super Bowl in 2013 are approximately 7-1. It appears the offense is going to be of the high octane variety yet again but the defense is the big key. If they can improve markedly in that area, twelve wins may not be difficult. We will monitor the Patriots progress throughout the offseason and into the regular season. 

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