NFL Odds: New Orleans Saints

The Bounty-Gate investigation is continuing and a new coach for the Saints will be in place shortly, but how will this affect the 2012 season for New Orleans? Join our Saints blog which will run throughout the off season.

 

 

Training camps starts on July 24^th and Who Dat Nation has to be thrilled that Number Nine is back in the saddle after signing a monster deal earlier this month. 

Nobody but nobody is questioning the high octane offense that Drew Brees will unleash once the season starts. What needs to be addressed is a Saints secondary that allowed nearly 260 yards per game and ranked 30^th in that category. New Orleans had a dearth of draft picks this season due both to penalties from Bountygate and trades, so they only secured one player to add to their lackluster defensive backfield. Corey White of Samford was drafted in the 5^th round but is on the bubble when it comes to suiting up when the games really matter.

Tracy Porter is now a Bronco, so the Saints should be rolling out Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson at cornerback; Malcolm Jenkins will be roaming at free safety, and Roman Harper is slated to patrol the strong safety spot. Who backs up or competes to oust one of the anticipated starters is still up for grabs but their collective performances must be better than last season if they are to contend for a return trip to the Super Bowl.

 

 

Contrarians will poo poo the news that New Orleans caved and dumped a Brink's truck full of money on Drew Brees. But, everyone else will say, it's about time. Drew Brees got everything he wanted to the tune of a 5-year, hundred million dollar deal with $60 million guaranteed. 

It was the only option for the Saints but it just took them too long to do it. After Brees strongly hinted he would sit out rather than being stuck with the franchise tag, the Saints had to do some serious soul searching and they reasoned Brees could make things very uncomfortable down on the Bayou if he sat out. They came to their senses and now Drew Brees will be in uniform when training camp commences.

 

 

Will he or won’t he be suiting up this season for the Saints? That’s the question fans are asking of the uber talented Drew Brees.  Right now he is in a bitter contract dispute with the team, so his presence on opening day is unknown at this early juncture. 

Let’s assume Brees either accepts the franchise tender or hammers out a long term agreement with the team and is ready to unload on opening day. If that’s the case, then we see nothing in the form of the Washington Redskins that will stop him from torching their secondary and leading his team to a home victory over the overmatched Redskins. 

The pick is New Orleans -9 ½.

 

 

Drew Brees is getting more money one way or the other, so stated a ruling by system arbiter Stephen Burbank that clearly defined this franchise tag as an addition to the tag that was stuck on Brees after his rookie contract ran out when he was playing for San Diego back in 2005.  The Chargers must now decide whether spending a bit less this season is worth stoking Brees' ire even further and simply postponing the inevitable multi-year bonanza that Brees is certain to get whether it be from the Saints or some other team looking for an elite signal caller.

The Saints have clearly mishandled this entire negotiation and are going to be dealt a miserable deck of cards if they don't get on bended knee quickly to put the acrimony aside in order to make Brees an offer which will be commensurate with a quarterback who broke Dan Marino's single-season passing-yardage record last year.  Brees is now in the driver's seat and must decide whether to play the rest of his career for a town who adores him or suit up for the Saints this season and make the price tag too great for the team after this season.  Saints fans surely know exactly what outcome is best for the franchise, here's hoping management smartens up too!

 

 

It’s virtually impossible to report anything having to do with the New Orleans Saints that doesn’t have the words BountyGate or Drew Brees in the headline. Brees is still unsigned and unhappy about being labeled with the franchise tag, a one year tender, which does nothing to provide the stellar signal caller with the long term security he is seeking.

While not signaling out Brees specifically, I am always amused by professional athletes looking for security after making millions upon millions of dollars. Brees is scheduled to make $16.4 million if he plays under the franchise tag guidelines tendered by the Saints. If that’s not security then I would suggest a more sensible budget be implemented in the Brees household.

Perhaps the word “security” should be replaced by something, anything else when it comes to truckloads of money being lavished upon athletes. I certainly don’t begrudge Brees for getting every nickel he can but let’s not continue to confuse an athlete looking to add more zeroes to his bank account with a 9 to 5 average Joe gunning for a few more bucks to add to his pension.

That being said, the Saints would be wise to give Brees what he wants as he is still only 33-years-old (old for a running back, not so for a healthy quarterback) and make sure he retires a Saint. July 16^th is the drop dead date for an agreement; otherwise Brees will have to play under the franchise tag and he will not be a happy camper. 

 

 

Bountygate continues to dominate the fragrance of this season’s OTA’s and mini-camp down on the bayou. Roger Goodell will hear appeals on behalf of Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith, Scott Fujita and Anthony Hargrove on June 18^th. Goodell agreed to consider the appeals last month and this will be the last gasp for the players penalized for their part in the scandal.

ESPN is reporting that the Saints GM Mickey Loomis extended an olive branch in terms of a revised contract proposal to Drew Brees’ agent Tom Condon. There has been little communication between the parties for the past few months and the 33-year-old Brees is looking to make this contract his final contract. He has stated on more than occasion that he wants to end his career as a Saint as do the Saints’ fans. Brees no doubt eyeballed the lavish contract extended to the 36-year-old Peyton Manning who has not thrown a pass in anger in over a year. The sides are reportedly two million dollars apart before this latest offer by the team.

 

 

Bountygate refuses to die a quiet death. The NFLPA is prepared to appeal the ruling by Special Master (yes, that's what he's called although it does have a peculiar sado masochistic ring to it) Stephen Burbank who upheld the ruling by NFL head honcho Roger Goodell to suspend and levy fines to all of those who were involved in the Saints scandal from 2009 to 2011. 

Although I am unfamiliar with the inner workings of union policies as it pertains to the National Football League Players Association, something strikes me as odd to say the least that an arbiter's decision is able to be appealed. Isn't that's why you agree to arbitration, so you can put the situation to bed one way or another?Though the players involved will gladly allow the union to fight to the bitter end on their behalf, it is certainly doing nothing to enhance the Saints' chances of conducting voluntary and mandatory workouts without the carnival like atmosphere.

 

 

Suspended linebacker Jonathan Vilma is not only appealing his suspension but has now filed a lawsuit for defamation of character against NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.  Vilma has been accused and summarily suspended for his role in the now infamous Bountygate that has dominated the team’s headlines since the story broke. 

Vilma’s attorney Peter Ginsberg stated the following in defense of his client, “Commissioner Goodell opted to make very public and unfortunately erroneous allegations against Jonathan. By making these false and public statements, he has significantly harmed Jonathan’s reputation and ability to make a living.”

Ginsberg further added, “By suing Commissioner Goodell in court, Jonathan opted to use a fair playing field where he has procedural rights and protections to remedy the harm Commissioner Goodell has done to him.”

As if this wasn’t enough, the erudite Vilma tweeted the following, ““As I’ve said before..I NEVER PAID, NOR INTENDED TO PAY ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY, TO ANY PLAYER FOR INTENTIONALLY HURTING AN OPPONENT.”

The lawsuit asks for unspecified monetary damages but further prolongs this sorry chapter in the Saints history.  New Orleans will have this black cloud following them throughout the season as they will be without head coach Sean Payton for the entire season due to his suspension.  But the team stands resolute in their support of Payton as it was recently reported they will leave his seat on the team bus, plane and even the meeting room empty for the duration of his suspension.  

 

 

Bountygate continues to swirl even though the punishments have been meted out while Drew Brees is still holding out like a prom queen headed for the convent.  Head coach Sean Payton is persona non grata this season at any official or unofficial team workouts and even the interim coach, assistant Joe Vitt is out for the first six games on suspension.  Who will guide this rudderless ship for the first part of the season is still unknown and teams all across the league are preparing a funeral dirge in gleeful anticipation of burying the Saints.

But contrarians and resolute fans alike are hoping this “us against the world” situation will prove to be a bonding experience that will make this 2012 edition even stronger and more determined than ever before.  While New Orleans suffered the pains of no draft picks until the 3rd round, their core is still strong though their defense continues to be suspect.  No doubt Brees will return and bring his world class arm with him but whether or not this team is strong enough to brave these uncharted waters is very much a question which won’t be answered until the games are played for real.

 

 

 

Saints general manager Mickey Loomis will try to conjure some of that old black magic from down on the bayou this Thursday night because his team will be without a 1st and 2nd round pick in this year's NFL draft. The Saints traded up last year with the Patriots to grab running back Mark Ingram and must now pay them back with this year's 1st rounder. In addition, the NFL penalized the Saints franchise in the aftermath of the Bounty-gate scandal, costing them second round picks in this year's draft and 2013.

Forfeiting their second round pick in consecutive years was only the tip of the iceberg. Head coach Sean Payton will be forced to sit out the entire 2012-2013 season, assistant head coach Joe Vitt gets to take a seat for six games, GM Mickey Loomis has been suspended for eight games while the master of this macabre episode, former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, is out of the league indefinitely.

Adding further fuel to the fire is the suspicion that Mickey Loomis had the Superdome wired for sound and could listen to the radio transmissions of opposing coaches. This makes Bill Belichick's Spy-gate look like good old fashioned due diligence.S The Saints must cull the wheat from the chaff as they are relegated to drafting from the third round on and will finally hear their name called from the podium as they select the 27th player in the 3rd round (162nd overall). Historically, New Orleans has done well with later picks (i.e. Jahri Evans 4th round, Carl Nicks 5th round, Marques Colston 7th round) and they are hoping to turn a downward spiral into a Hail Mary on Thursday night.

 

 

Will players be suspended?

Domonique Foxworth succeeds Kevin Mawae as the NFL Players Association president and his first order of business will be to conclude the investigation into the New Orleans Saints employment of bounties as a way to incentivize defensive players to take out the opposition by any means possible. The recently deposed defensive coordinator Greg Williams was the mastermind of the operation but to be fair, he didn’t exactly create the wheel with the pay for slay strategy. 

Bounties have been a part of football for a good long time but it has been hidden within the alpha male confines of the locker room or in a make shift classroom when the team meets and reviews game tape. However, with players getting bigger, stronger and faster the effects of the blows have manifested in an increasing number of head injuries which have derailed or ended careers. Even the players realize it is in their own best interest to put safety above all else. Therefore, in today’s NFL climate the notion that a team has a standing bounty on certain players is unfathomable and Greg Williams was the first domino to fall as he was suspended indefinitely while head coach Sean Payton was slapped with a one year suspension and even general manager Mickey Loomis was penalized for half a season. 

But that distraction may not be the only consequence of Bounty Gate. The question we have to ask is, will the players who participated be suspended? The GM and his coaches do not make the tackles or create the fumbles or pick off errant passes. While defense wasn’t the cornerstone of the Saints success last season, ranked 30^th in passing yards allowed, it must certainly be factored into their chances of success in 2012. 

As of this writing NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has not ruled out suspending players but will wait until he has a full accounting from the new sheriff in town, the newly installed NFLPA president Domonique Foxworth. Until then, we will have to wait and see who gets targeted or if the entire sordid mess will simply be an asterisk on the season going forward.

Off season moves

The Saints slapped the franchise tag on Drew Brees and the running back position is stacked with Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles and last year’s 1^st round draft pick Mark Ingram. They have re-signed Marques Colston, Turk McBride, Chase Daniel and filled a void at linebacker by signing Curtis Lofton. Veteran wide receiver Robert Meacham departed for the San Diego sunshine but the Saints look to be loaded once again offensively.

The Odds

5Dimes is currently hanging a total of 11.5 wins for the 2012 edition of the New Orleans Saints. NFL odds makers are gauging the Saints chances at 10-1 which puts them in the upper echelon of those teams deemed most likely to hoist the Lombardi trophy next season. However, if they don’t sign Brees to a long term pact, they will have a very unhappy superstar under center and if Bounty-Gate continues to linger and defensive players are suspended, those odds could rise and the total could fall. Stay tuned, the situation is still fluid and could get even more interesting in the coming months.